Alexander Bublik vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Bublik and Matteo Berrettini have met 3 times since 2017; Matteo Berrettini leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Istanbul in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Berrettini leads 2–1. Across all meetings Bublik has taken 2 sets to Berrettini's 4. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bublik | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Bublik | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 19/28 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 14/47 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 17/38 | 36% | 10/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 4/9 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 14/28 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 22/25 | 88% | 15/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 19/25 | 76% | 13/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bublik 1, Berrettini 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Bublik
🤖 Servebot
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Alexander Bublik and Matteo Berrettini are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 6,464 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 20, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 11, 2021
Antalya Open - Antalya
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 14, 2017
Istanbul
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Bublik | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Bublik | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 5 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 78% | 7/9 |
| 10 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 15 or more | 42% | 5/12 | 33% | 3/9 |
| 20 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 11% | 1/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bublik | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.75 | 1.82 |
| ROI % | -9.9% | -25.1% |
| Units P/L | -1.19u | -2.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Bublik | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Bublik has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Berrettini's 40%).
| Opponent | Bublik | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | W 67 63 76 | L 67 57 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 61 61 | W 46 75 75 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 62 75 | L 46 76 36 |
| Quentin Halys | L 46 67 | W 62 64 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 57 64 62 | W 64 64 64 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 75 64 75 | W 67 75 61 62 |
| Learner Tien | L 16 64 67 | L 75 26 36 |
| Alexei Popyrin | W 64 63 | L 26 36 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 67 76 75 | L 64 36 46 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 67 67 | L 67 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Tomas Machac
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Jakub Mensik
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rafael Jodar
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Tommy Paul
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Adrian Mannarino
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
J.J. Wolf
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Quentin Halys
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · Final
Jul 25
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–59 matches
| Metric | Bublik | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 57% |
| Sets won | 58% | 56% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bublik | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bublik | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
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