Alex de Minaur vs Ugo HumbertPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Ugo Humbert have met 8 times since 2020; Alex de Minaur leads 6–2. Their first meeting came at European Open - Antwerp in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–2. On clay courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Humbert leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 12 sets to Humbert's 7. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Humbert | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Ugo Humbert | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 77% | 23/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 31% | 16/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 61% | 11/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 88% | 28/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 72% | 23/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Humbert 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Humbert
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Ugo Humbert.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Feb 14, 2026
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 15, 2024
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Semifinals
Sep 14, 2023
Davis Cup, Group B, Manchester
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jul 28, 2023
Truist Atlanta Open - Atlanta
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 17, 2022
Open Parc - Lyon
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 20, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 6, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 25, 2020
European Open - Antwerp
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Humbert | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Ugo Humbert | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 94% | 15/16 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 69% | 11/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 19% | 3/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 13% | 2/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.68 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -11.5% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -1.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 2 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Humbert's 60%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | W 16 63 76 | W 63 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | L 61 67 57 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | W 64 75 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 63 64 63 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 62 75 | L 26 57 64 63 36 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | L 36 36 |
| Hamad Medjedovic | L 36 46 | W 26 76 76 |
| Gabriel Diallo | W 76 63 | W 61 64 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | L 46 63 36 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | W 63 57 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Ben Shelton
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Andres Martin
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Zizou Bergs
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Zizou Bergs
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Final
Jun 28
Jack Draper
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Semifinals
Jun 26
Quentin Halys
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 56% |
| Sets won | 62% | 56% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 2 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 2 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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