Alex de Minaur vs Ugo HumbertPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Ugo Humbert have met 8 times since 2020; Alex de Minaur leads 6–2. Their first meeting came at European Open - Antwerp in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–2. On clay courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Humbert leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 12 sets to Humbert's 7. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Humbert | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Ugo Humbert | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 77% | 23/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 50% | 11/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 35% | 18/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 55% | 17/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 70% | 14/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 85% | 28/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 70% | 23/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Humbert 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Humbert
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Ugo Humbert.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Feb 14, 2026
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · Semifinals
Jun 15, 2024
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Semifinals
Sep 14, 2023
Davis Cup, Group B, Manchester
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jul 28, 2023
Truist Atlanta Open - Atlanta
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 17, 2022
Open Parc - Lyon
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 20, 2022
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 6, 2022
ATP Cup - Sydney
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 25, 2020
European Open - Antwerp
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Humbert | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Ugo Humbert | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 2–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.05 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -42.7% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -2.99u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Humbert has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Minaur's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | L 46 76 36 |
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | W 63 64 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | W 63 62 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | W 63 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | L 61 67 57 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | W 64 75 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 63 64 63 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | L 36 36 |
| Hamad Medjedovic | L 36 46 | W 26 76 76 |
| Gabriel Diallo | W 76 63 | W 61 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Arthur Gea
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Brandon Nakashima
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Ben Shelton
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Andres Martin
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 55% |
| Sets won | 63% | 56% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 2 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Cup | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 2 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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