Alex de Minaur vs Taylor FritzPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Taylor Fritz have met 12 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 7–5. Their first meeting came at Surbiton in 2018 on grass. On hard courts Minaur leads 6–4. On grass courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 19 sets to Fritz's 12. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Nitto ATP Finals - Turin (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Fritz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Taylor Fritz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 44% | 21/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 35% | 15/43 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 80% | 4/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 60% | 18/30 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 85% | 23/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 59% | 16/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 5, Fritz 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Fritz
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Taylor Fritz.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
12 career meetings, newest first
Nov 13, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 21, 2024
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, USA-AUS 1-2
H Hard · Rubber 2
Nov 14, 2024
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Jan 1, 2024
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 10, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jun 24, 2022
Viking International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Mar 16, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 31, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 15, 2019
Basel
H Hard · Round of 16
Jul 28, 2019
Atlanta
H Hard · Final
Nov 7, 2018
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 7, 2018
Surbiton
G Grass · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Fritz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Taylor Fritz | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 50% | 8/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 13% | 2/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 6% | 1/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -11.1% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -1.78u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Fritz's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 64 67 46 | W 75 64 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W | L 67 67 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 46 46 26 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | L 36 64 1113 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 63 63 | W 63 64 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 36 64 63 | L 63 64 36 46 46 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | W 63 67 63 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | L 67 64 36 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | W 76 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | L 46 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Matteo Arnaldi
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Carlos Alcaraz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Francisco Cerundolo
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Mattia Bellucci
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Darwin Blanch
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Christopher O'Connell
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 62% |
| Sets won | 63% | 59% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| Other | 3 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 6 | 4 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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