Alex de Minaur vs Taylor FritzPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Taylor Fritz have met 12 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 7–5. Their first meeting came at Surbiton in 2018 on grass. On hard courts Minaur leads 6–4. On grass courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 19 sets to Fritz's 12. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Nitto ATP Finals - Turin (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Fritz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Taylor Fritz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 56% | 20/36 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 35% | 7/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 41% | 23/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 67% | 4/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 63% | 22/35 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 90% | 28/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 65% | 20/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 6 of 10 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 5, Fritz 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Fritz
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Taylor Fritz.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
12 career meetings, newest first
Nov 13, 2025
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 21, 2024
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, USA-AUS 1-2
H Hard · Rubber 2
Nov 14, 2024
Nitto ATP Finals - Turin
H Hard · Round Robin
Jan 1, 2024
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Round Robin
Aug 10, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jun 24, 2022
Viking International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Mar 16, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 31, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 15, 2019
Basel
H Hard · Round of 16
Jul 28, 2019
Atlanta
H Hard · Final
Nov 7, 2018
Next Gen ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Jun 7, 2018
Surbiton
G Grass · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Fritz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Taylor Fritz | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 24/24 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 24/24 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 96% | 23/24 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 79% | 19/24 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 42% | 10/24 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 17% | 4/24 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 19–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +11.1% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +2.67u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 5 | 7 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Fritz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Minaur's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | L 67 64 36 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | W 76 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | L 46 57 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 36 62 67 | W 63 64 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 62 75 | W 63 64 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 16 46 | L 46 46 26 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 61 61 | W 76 64 64 |
| Patrick Kypson | L 16 76 67 | W 62 62 75 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 46 46 |
| Gabriel Diallo | W 76 63 | W 46 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Christopher O'Connell
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Alex Michelsen
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Thiago Agustin Tirante
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Final
Aug 3
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 68–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 65% |
| Sets won | 62% | 60% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 3 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 6 | 4 |
| Grass | 1 | 1 |
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