Alex de Minaur vs Rei SakamotoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Rei Sakamoto have met 1 time since 2026; Alex de Minaur leads 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 2 sets to Sakamoto's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Sakamoto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Rei Sakamoto | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 63% | 29/46 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 25% | 6/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 33% | 23/70 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 47% | 23/49 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 51% | 20/39 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 90% | 37/41 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 71% | 29/41 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Sakamoto 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Sakamoto
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Rei Sakamoto.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Oct 11, 2026
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Sakamoto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Rei Sakamoto | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 20/20 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 20/20 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 85% | 17/20 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 45% | 9/20 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 25% | 5/20 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 5% | 1/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.86 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +15.9% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +3.19u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Sakamoto's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | W 64 64 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 64 67 46 | L 62 46 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 36 67 57 |
| Jurij Rodionov | W 64 61 | W 61 64 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 62 57 62 64 | W 76 61 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 67 16 75 64 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Alex de Minaur
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Andrey Rublev
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Marco Trungelliti
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Kyrian Jacquet
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Seongchan Hong
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Anton Shepp
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NZL-JPN 1-3 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Ji Sung Nam
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 69–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 64% |
| Sets won | 63% | 58% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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