Alex de Minaur vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Mackenzie McDonald have met 4 times since 2017; Alex de Minaur leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Drummondville in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 4–0. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to McDonald's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 708 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 19, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 9, 2022
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 17, 2018
Shenzhen
H Hard · Round of 16
Mar 10, 2017
Drummondville
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 1 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs McDonald's 20%).
| Opponent | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Toby Samuel | W 64 64 62 | L 57 16 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | L 26 36 |
| Patrick Kypson | L 16 76 67 | L 63 16 46 46 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 64 67 46 | W 60 61 |
| Sebastian Korda | W 46 64 64 | L 46 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 41% |
| Sets won | 63% | 43% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
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