Alex de Minaur vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Mackenzie McDonald have met 4 times since 2017; Alex de Minaur leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Drummondville in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 4–0. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to McDonald's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 28% | 14/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 74% | 17/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, McDonald 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,208 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jan 19, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 9, 2022
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 17, 2018
Shenzhen
H Hard · Round of 16
Mar 10, 2017
Drummondville
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.96 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -24.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -2.72u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs McDonald's 33%).
| Opponent | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | W 16 63 76 | L 36 26 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | L 26 36 |
| Patrick Kypson | L 16 76 67 | L 63 16 46 46 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 64 67 46 | W 60 61 |
| Sebastian Korda | W 46 64 64 | L 46 57 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | W 64 36 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Adam Walton
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Patrick Kypson
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Roberto Carballes Baena
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Christopher O'Connell
Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying
Jun 25
Shintaro Mochizuki
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 49% |
| Sets won | 62% | 48% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 0 |
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