Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo SonegoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Sonego have met 4 times since 2020; Alex de Minaur leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris in 2020 on hard. On grass courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 8 sets to Sonego's 1. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 38% | 14/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 53% | 10/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Sonego 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Sonego.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 26, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jun 22, 2022
Viking International - Eastbourne
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jun 26, 2021
Nature Valley International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Final
Nov 4, 2020
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 39% | 5/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 4–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.58 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -46.9% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -6.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Sonego's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | W 76 64 | W 62 76 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | L 26 36 |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | W 76 26 64 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 63 63 | L 57 26 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 46 63 76 57 46 |
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | W 64 64 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 61 76 |
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | W 64 62 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 36 46 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | L 64 26 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Aziz Dougaz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Kamil Majchrzak
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
James Duckworth
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 44% |
| Sets won | 63% | 46% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 2 | 0 |
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