Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo SonegoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Sonego have met 4 times since 2020; Alex de Minaur leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris in 2020 on hard. On grass courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 8 sets to Sonego's 1. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 36% | 13/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 53% | 9/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Sonego 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Sonego.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 26, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jun 22, 2022
Viking International - Eastbourne
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jun 26, 2021
Nature Valley International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Final
Nov 4, 2020
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 8–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.27 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -18.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -2.92u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Sonego's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | L 57 36 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 61 76 |
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | W 64 62 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 63 64 75 | L 36 46 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 75 67 16 | L 64 26 46 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 57 63 36 | L 67 67 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | W 26 63 75 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | L 64 36 46 67 |
| Gabriel Diallo | W 76 63 | W 76 46 76 67 62 |
| Tommy Paul | L 62 36 36 | L 36 26 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Juncheng Shang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Raphael Collignon
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Joel Schwaerzler
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 47% |
| Sets won | 62% | 46% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 2 | 0 |
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