Alex de Minaur vs Karen KhachanovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov have met 4 times since 2020; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2020 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Khachanov's 6. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris (2025).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 4th Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 13 · 12:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.67 or shorter, Alex de Minaur has won 91 of 152 (60%). The price implied 64%, so Alex de Minaur has fallen 4 points short of it.
At 2.19 or longer, Karen Khachanov has won 24 of 58 (41%). The price implied 38%, so Karen Khachanov has beaten it by 3 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov meet in the 4th Round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on October 13 on hard court. De Minaur, ranked 9th, arrives on a six-match winning streak through six matches in the past 14 days. Khachanov sits at 27th and has won his last two, also active with five matches in that same span.
Their head-to-head record stands level at 2-2. Both players have won 4 of their last 5 matches and 8 of their last 10. De Minaur holds a 14-6 record on hard courts recently, while Khachanov's hard court mark reads 12-8 over the same sample.
De Minaur retrieves well and constructs points from defense, relying on consistency to break down opponents in long rallies. Khachanov generates power from his serve and looks to finish points quickly off his forehand. Hard court surfaces suit both players, though at different tempos. De Minaur must withstand Khachanov's first-strike tennis and maintain the baseline exchanges where his movement and court sense take hold; Khachanov needs his serve to function and must avoid extended rallies that favor his opponent's retrieval skills.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Khachanov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Karen Khachanov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 49% | 17/35 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 21% | 6/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 71% | 5/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 26% | 5/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 47% | 8/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Khachanov 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Khachanov
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Karen Khachanov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Oct 30, 2025
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 26, 2024
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 22, 2022
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 5, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Khachanov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Karen Khachanov | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.94 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +12.5% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +1.62u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 5 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Khachanov's 70%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 62 64 |
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | W 76 67 76 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W | L 67 26 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 62 | W 63 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 36 67 67 |
| Alexander Blockx | W 75 76 | W |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | W 63 62 64 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | W 57 64 64 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | W 76 61 60 | W 63 60 61 |
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | L 60 67 76 26 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Adrian Mannarino
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Arthur Fery
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Felix Auger-Aliassime
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alexander Blockx
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 10
Alexander Blockx
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Matchup videos
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 53% |
| Sets won | 63% | 54% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |