Alex de Minaur vs Karen KhachanovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov have met 4 times since 2020; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2020 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Khachanov's 6. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Khachanov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Karen Khachanov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 53% | 17/32 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 15% | 4/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 67% | 4/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 18% | 3/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 36% | 5/14 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Khachanov 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Khachanov
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Karen Khachanov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Oct 30, 2025
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 26, 2024
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 22, 2022
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 5, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Khachanov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Karen Khachanov | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 2–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.47 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -59.0% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -4.13u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Khachanov's 11%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Flavio Cobolli | L 57 67 36 | L 60 67 76 26 26 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 46 67 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | L 67 63 36 46 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | L 36 63 67 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 36 | L 16 61 26 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | W 57 64 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 64 62 | L 36 46 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | W 63 36 76 | L 57 26 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | L 76 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Terence Atmane
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Bernard Tomic
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Flavio Cobolli
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Yannick Hanfmann
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Billy Harris
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Ethan Quinn
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · 1st Round
Jun 16
Jesper de Jong
French Open - Paris · 3rd Round
May 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 44% |
| Sets won | 62% | 49% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
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