Alex de Minaur vs Grigor DimitrovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Grigor Dimitrov have met 6 times since 2019; Alex de Minaur leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–2. Minaur has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to Dimitrov's 6. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Dimitrov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Grigor Dimitrov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 73% | 8/11 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 38% | 6/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 33% | 9/27 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 29% | 4/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 57% | 8/14 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Dimitrov 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Dimitrov
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Grigor Dimitrov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Apr 11, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 17, 2024
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 17, 2023
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 10, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 24, 2020
European Open - Antwerp
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 2, 2019
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Dimitrov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Grigor Dimitrov | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 20% | 1/5 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 20% | 1/5 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/5 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 1.39 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -50.6% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -3.54u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 1 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Dimitrov's 33%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | L 57 63 64 46 67 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | W 63 64 36 57 63 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | W 76 46 75 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 36 36 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | L 67 67 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | L 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Edas Butvilas
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Holger Rune
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Elmer Moller
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 1
Sep 18
Alexei Popyrin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Timofey Skatov
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Lorenzo Giustino
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Sebastian Baez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 42% |
| Sets won | 63% | 46% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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