Alex de Minaur vs Grigor DimitrovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Grigor Dimitrov have met 6 times since 2019; Alex de Minaur leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–2. Minaur has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to Dimitrov's 6. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Dimitrov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Grigor Dimitrov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 75% | 6/8 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 32% | 7/22 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 73% | 8/11 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 55% | 6/11 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Dimitrov 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Dimitrov
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Grigor Dimitrov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Apr 11, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 17, 2024
ABN AMRO Open - Rotterdam
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 17, 2023
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 10, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 24, 2020
European Open - Antwerp
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 2, 2019
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Dimitrov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Grigor Dimitrov | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 8% | 1/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.69 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -3.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -0.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 1 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Dimitrov's 25%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | L 57 63 64 46 67 |
| Nuno Borges | W 75 62 | L 46 26 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | W 63 64 36 57 63 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | W 76 46 75 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 36 36 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | L 67 67 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 57 63 36 | L 67 64 67 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 57 26 16 | L 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Sebastian Baez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Dalibor Svrcina
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 14
Arthur Fery
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Matteo Berrettini
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Jakub Mensik
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Dane Sweeny
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 27–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 41% |
| Sets won | 62% | 45% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Dimitrov |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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