Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel DialloPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Gabriel Diallo have met 3 times since 2023; Alex de Minaur leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Toronto in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Diallo's 1. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at HSBC Championships - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Diallo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Gabriel Diallo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 40% | 8/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 38% | 13/34 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 69% | 9/13 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Diallo 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Diallo
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Gabriel Diallo.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 16, 2026
HSBC Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Oct 29, 2025
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 9, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Diallo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Gabriel Diallo | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.31 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -35.0% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -2.80u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 1 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (88% vs Diallo's 13%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | L 36 14 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | L 46 63 57 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | W 16 46 76 63 31 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 16 46 | L 16 26 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | L 16 46 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 62 | L 76 36 36 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 76 63 | L 64 36 67 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 62 75 | L 63 57 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Kyrian Jacquet
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Tristan Boyer
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 28
Lorenzo Sonego
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Benjamin Bonzi
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Jack Draper
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Terence Atmane
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Alex de Minaur
HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 37–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 41% |
| Sets won | 62% | 44% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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