Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel DialloPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Gabriel Diallo have met 3 times since 2023; Alex de Minaur leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at National Bank Open - Toronto in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Diallo's 1. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at HSBC Championships - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Diallo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Gabriel Diallo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 55% | 6/11 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 33% | 6/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 23% | 3/13 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 75% | 6/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 75% | 6/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Diallo 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Diallo
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Gabriel Diallo.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 16, 2026
HSBC Championships - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Oct 29, 2025
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 9, 2023
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 1–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.02 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -39.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -1.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | — |
| Route | GBR → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Diallo's 25%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | W 67 76 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 26 76 119 | L 16 26 |
| James Duckworth | W 62 76 | L 36 14 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | L |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | L 46 63 57 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | W 16 46 76 63 31 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 64 63 | L 16 46 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 62 | L 76 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Kyrian Jacquet
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Tristan Boyer
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 28
Lorenzo Sonego
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Benjamin Bonzi
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Benjamin Bonzi
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Jack Draper
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 32–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 38% |
| Sets won | 63% | 41% |
| Games won | 54% | 47% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Diallo |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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