Alejandro Tabilo vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alejandro Tabilo and Tommy Paul have met 2 times since 2024; Tommy Paul leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at cinch Championships - London in 2024 on grass. Paul has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Tabilo has taken 1 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2024).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
- Level
- ATP 500
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 29 · 11:30 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 3.16 or longer, Alejandro Tabilo has won 7 of 41 (17%). The price implied 23%, so Alejandro Tabilo has fallen 6 points short of it.
At 1.36 or shorter, Tommy Paul has won 112 of 132 (85%). The price implied 77%, so Tommy Paul has beaten it by 8 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Tommy Paul meets Alejandro Tabilo in the 1st Round of the Japan Open Tennis Championships on September 29 on hard court. Paul ranks 16th, Tabilo 31st. Paul has not played in 23 days, while Tabilo competed four days ago and has been active in recent weeks.
Paul leads their head-to-head 2-0 across two meetings. Paul has won 7 of his last 10 matches; Tabilo has won 4 of 10 and is on a three-match losing streak. On hard courts, Paul has posted a 65% win rate while Tabilo sits at 50%. Both men have split their last five, but Paul's consistency over a longer sample contrasts with Tabilo's recent stretch.
Paul is a powerful striker who generates pace from the baseline and dictates rallies early. Alejandro Tabilo operates as a serve-focused player who relies on his delivery as a primary weapon. Paul's hard court record reflects comfort on the surface; Tabilo's even split suggests inconsistency. The match will test whether Paul's three-week layoff dulls his timing against Tabilo's need to establish his serve and shorten baseline exchanges.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tabilo | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Tabilo | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 19/38 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 11/27 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 30/65 | 50% | 21/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 40% | 17/42 | 38% | 14/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 12/22 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 42% | 10/24 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 78% | 21/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 19/36 | 59% | 16/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tabilo 0, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tabilo
🤖 Servebot
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,954 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Oct 6, 2024
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jun 20, 2024
cinch Championships - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tabilo | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Tabilo | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 86% | 12/14 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 21% | 3/14 | 18% | 2/11 |
| 15 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–8 | 7–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.31 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -5.3% | -1.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.79u | -0.16u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 9,590 mi · 15,433 km | 6,741 mi · 10,849 km |
| Route | USA → CHN → JPN | USA → JPN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Tabilo's 20%).
| Opponent | Tabilo | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | L 46 46 | W 62 26 64 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 26 67 26 | W 46 76 64 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 46 46 | W 64 36 67 61 63 |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L 26 61 16 | W 36 63 64 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 46 67 | W 64 67 63 |
| Valentin Royer | W 62 64 | W 64 76 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 36 57 57 | L 57 67 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 06 26 | L 76 46 36 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 26 46 | W 46 63 75 64 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 64 60 | L 67 64 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Alexei Popyrin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Yannick Hanfmann
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Jan-Lennard Struff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Hubert Hurkacz
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–73 matches
| Metric | Tabilo | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 70% |
| Sets won | 53% | 64% |
| Games won | 52% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tabilo | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tabilo | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |