Alejandro Tabilo vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alejandro Tabilo and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2021; Sebastian Baez leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Buenos Aires in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 3–1. Baez has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Baez leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Tabilo has taken 3 sets to Baez's 6. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tabilo | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Tabilo | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 18/36 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 46% | 13/28 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 31/64 | 23% | 14/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 15/40 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 14/23 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 75% | 27/36 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 18/36 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tabilo 1, Baez 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tabilo
🤖 Servebot
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🎾 All-Court across 703 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alejandro Tabilo.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 27, 2026
BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Mar 3, 2024
Movistar Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · Final
Feb 4, 2022
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Mar 1, 2021
Buenos Aires
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tabilo | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Tabilo | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 32% | 6/19 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 12/16 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 10 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–10 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.37 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | -5.3% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | -0.90u | -2.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tabilo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Baez's 20%).
| Opponent | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Carreno Busta | L 64 67 46 | L 75 57 57 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 63 62 67 63 | L 36 16 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 46 67 | L 64 06 36 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 63 64 | L 16 67 64 62 57 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 64 46 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Ben Shelton | W 46 75 64 | W 75 63 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 67 36 | W 63 36 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 64 46 | L 16 26 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 63 36 46 | L 57 36 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 46 46 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pablo Carreno Busta
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tommy Paul
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Alexei Popyrin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Yannick Hanfmann
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–72 matches
| Metric | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 54% |
| Sets won | 52% | 52% |
| Games won | 52% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
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