Alejandro Tabilo vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alejandro Tabilo and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2021; Sebastian Baez leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Buenos Aires in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 3–1. Baez has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Baez leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Tabilo has taken 3 sets to Baez's 6. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tabilo | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Tabilo | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 26/49 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 11/27 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 34/76 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 22/46 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 17/27 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 15/32 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 37/45 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 26/45 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tabilo 1, Baez 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tabilo
💥 Big Hitter
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 620 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 27, 2026
BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Mar 3, 2024
Movistar Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · Final
Feb 4, 2022
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Mar 1, 2021
Buenos Aires
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tabilo | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Tabilo | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–9 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | -22.2% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +1.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 4 |
| Matches | 6 | 9 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tabilo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Baez's 30%).
| Opponent | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 46 67 | L 64 06 36 |
| Lloyd Harris | W 76 67 76 | W 64 64 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 63 64 | L 16 67 64 62 57 |
| Zizou Bergs | W 64 46 63 | L 63 36 26 |
| Ben Shelton | W 46 75 64 | W 75 63 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 67 36 | W 63 36 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 64 46 | L 16 26 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 63 36 46 | L 57 36 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 62 61 | L 75 57 57 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 46 46 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Jan-Lennard Struff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Hubert Hurkacz
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 2
Ben Shelton
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Tallon Griekspoor
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Tiago Torres
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 64–81 matches
| Metric | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 55% |
| Sets won | 57% | 53% |
| Games won | 53% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tabilo | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 3 |
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