Alejandro Tabilo vs Brandon NakashimaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alejandro Tabilo and Brandon Nakashima have met 3 times since 2024; Alejandro Tabilo leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Tabilo leads 2–1. Across all meetings Tabilo has taken 5 sets to Nakashima's 3. Their most recent meeting: Alejandro Tabilo won at Chengdu Open - Chengdu (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tabilo | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Tabilo | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 26/49 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 11/27 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 34/76 | 29% | 16/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 22/46 | 54% | 20/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 17/27 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 15/32 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 37/45 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 26/45 | 74% | 25/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tabilo 1, Nakashima 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tabilo
💥 Big Hitter
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 22, 2025
Chengdu Open - Chengdu
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 11, 2024
Davis Cup, Group C, Zhuhai
H Hard · Rubber 2
Mar 21, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tabilo | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Tabilo | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 91% | 19/21 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 43% | 9/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 14% | 3/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 10% | 2/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–9 | 16–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | -22.2% | +38.6% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +8.10u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 13 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Tabilo's 40%).
| Opponent | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Jodar | L 26 16 | W 76 64 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 26 | W 67 76 61 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 63 61 | W 62 75 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 63 64 | L 64 67 67 76 67 |
| Ben Shelton | W 46 75 64 | L 36 67 |
| Luciano Darderi | L 61 57 36 | W 62 63 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | L 63 67 46 | W 63 64 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 76 46 64 | L 67 67 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 36 57 57 | L 46 06 |
| Fabian Marozsan | L 26 36 | L 67 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Jan-Lennard Struff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Hubert Hurkacz
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 2
Ben Shelton
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Tallon Griekspoor
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Tiago Torres
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniil Medvedev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Final
Aug 14
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–81 matches
| Metric | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 61% |
| Sets won | 57% | 59% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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