Alejandro Tabilo vs Brandon NakashimaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alejandro Tabilo and Brandon Nakashima have met 3 times since 2024; Alejandro Tabilo leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Tabilo leads 2–1. Across all meetings Tabilo has taken 5 sets to Nakashima's 3. Their most recent meeting: Alejandro Tabilo won at Chengdu Open - Chengdu (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tabilo | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Tabilo | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 18/36 | 74% | 23/31 |
| Wins a set when losing | 46% | 13/28 | 40% | 8/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 31/64 | 31% | 16/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 15/40 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 14/23 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 75% | 27/36 | 85% | 28/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 18/36 | 70% | 23/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tabilo 1, Nakashima 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tabilo
🤖 Servebot
Nakashima
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Alejandro Tabilo and Brandon Nakashima are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 6,464 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 22, 2025
Chengdu Open - Chengdu
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 11, 2024
Davis Cup, Group C, Zhuhai
H Hard · Rubber 2
Mar 21, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tabilo | Nakashima | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Tabilo | Brandon Nakashima | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 100% | 21/21 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 12/16 | 91% | 19/21 |
| 10 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 52% | 11/21 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 5% | 1/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–10 | 15–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.37 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | -5.3% | +27.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.90u | +5.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakashima has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Tabilo's 30%).
| Opponent | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Bublik | L 46 46 | L 76 36 67 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 26 67 26 | L 67 75 46 |
| Alex Michelsen | L 63 36 46 | L 36 46 46 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 67 16 | W 62 61 60 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 26 16 | W 76 64 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 26 | W 67 76 61 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 63 61 | W 62 75 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 63 64 | L 64 67 67 76 67 |
| Ben Shelton | W 46 75 64 | L 36 67 |
| Luciano Darderi | L 61 57 36 | W 62 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pablo Carreno Busta
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tommy Paul
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Alexei Popyrin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Yannick Hanfmann
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Matteo Berrettini
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Ugo Humbert
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jakub Mensik
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 25
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Baez
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–72 matches
| Metric | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 59% |
| Sets won | 52% | 58% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tabilo | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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