Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#26 · 27 yrs · R
Title3 meetings · sets 5–5
🇮🇹Matteo Berrettini
#46 · 30 yrs · R
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Matteo Berrettini have met 3 times since 2021; Matteo Berrettini leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo in 2021 on clay. On hard courts Berrettini leads 2–0. Berrettini has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 5 sets to Berrettini's 5. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 21/28 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 7/16 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 14/44 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 20/32 | 36% | 10/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 12/21 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 88% | 15/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 76% | 13/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 1, Berrettini 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🎯 Baseliner
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,590 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 1, 2026
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 4, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Apr 13, 2021
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 5/7 | 78% | 7/9 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 33% | 3/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 11% | 1/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–1 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.82 |
| ROI % | +40.2% | -25.1% |
| Units P/L | +2.82u | -2.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Fokina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Berrettini's 50%).
| Opponent | Fokina | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | L 67 46 | L 67 57 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 76 | L 64 36 46 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 61 75 | W 64 62 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 64 64 | W 63 76 76 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | W 63 63 | L 36 46 63 75 36 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 76 62 63 | W 67 75 61 62 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 76 62 | W 76 67 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 26 64 46 | L 16 67 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 63 63 | W 63 64 |
| Joao Fonseca | L 36 46 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Jenson Brooksby
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Matteo Berrettini
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Final
Sep 29
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Alexandre Muller
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–52 matches
| Metric | Fokina | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 57% |
| Sets won | 63% | 56% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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