Sebastian Baez vs Thiago MonteiroPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Sebastian Baez and Thiago Monteiro have met 6 times since 2021; Sebastian Baez leads 5–1. Their first meeting came at Buenos Aires Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 5–1. Baez has won the last 3 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, with Baez leading those 2–0. Across all meetings Baez has taken 11 sets to Monteiro's 4. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Olympics - Paris (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Baez | Monteiro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Sebastian Baez | Thiago Monteiro | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 76% | 26/34 | 64% | 16/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 19% | 5/26 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 22% | 13/60 | 40% | 19/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 17/27 | 40% | 12/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 64% | 7/11 | 64% | 14/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 29/34 | 80% | 20/25 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 26/34 | 64% | 16/25 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Baez 3, Monteiro 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Monteiro
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🎾 All-Court across 222 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Thiago Monteiro.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the all-court's tactical versatility.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jul 28, 2024
Olympics - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Feb 23, 2024
Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 25, 2022
Chile Dove Men+Care Open - Santiago
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 15, 2022
Rio Open - Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · 1st Round
Nov 21, 2021
Campinas Challenger
C Clay · Final
Oct 24, 2021
Buenos Aires Challenger
C Clay · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Baez | Monteiro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Sebastian Baez | Thiago Monteiro | ||
| 1 or more | 76% | 16/21 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 3 or more | 29% | 6/21 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 5 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 60% | 3/5 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/5 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Baez | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–6 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.90 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | +8.8% | -20.0% |
| Units P/L | +1.76u | -1.40u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Baez | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 4 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 2 |
| Distance | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km | 562 mi · 905 km |
| Route | CAN → USA → MEX → USA | SMR → GER |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (25% vs Monteiro's 0%).
| Opponent | Baez | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Vilius Gaubas | L 57 16 | L 67 67 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 62 57 26 02 | L 46 76 06 |
| Luciano Darderi | L 46 36 | L 57 26 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 64 63 | L 67 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Tom Gentzsch
Hagen Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Vilius Gaubas
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Andrea Pellegrino
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
David Jorda Sanchis
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Philip Henning
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Dylan Dietrich
Gstaad
Jul 12
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Gstaad
Jul 11
Pol Martin Tiffon
Istanbul Challenger · 2nd Round
May 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–64 matches
| Metric | Baez | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 53% |
| Sets won | 53% | 53% |
| Games won | 50% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Baez | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 2 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Baez | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 5 | 1 |
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