Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Thiago MonteiroPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Thiago Monteiro have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Campinas Challenger in 2023 on clay. On clay courts they are level 2–2. Carabelli has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Monteiro leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 6 sets to Monteiro's 5. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Movistar Chile Open - Santiago (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Monteiro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Thiago Monteiro | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 56% | 19/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 16/44 | 45% | 25/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 41% | 15/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 52% | 15/29 | 73% | 11/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 48% | 11/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 59% | 19/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 1, Monteiro 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Monteiro
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 212 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Thiago Monteiro.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 27, 2025
Movistar Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2024
Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 17, 2023
Montevideo Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 8, 2023
Campinas Challenger
C Clay · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Monteiro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Thiago Monteiro | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 3 or more | 60% | 6/10 | 77% | 13/17 |
| 5 or more | 60% | 6/10 | 41% | 7/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–8 | 15–7 |
| Avg odds | 3.30 | 1.64 |
| ROI % | -52.4% | +7.5% |
| Units P/L | -5.24u | +1.66u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 673 mi · 1,083 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | POL → ITA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Carabelli has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Monteiro's 50%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Hugo Dellien | W 64 62 | L 16 36 |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | W 57 64 76 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Ilia Simakin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Rinky Hijikata
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Federico Cina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Jan-Lennard Struff
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elmer Moller
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Mika Petkovic
Genoa 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo
Szczecin Challenger · Final
Sep 20
Marco Trungelliti
Szczecin Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 19
Diego Dedura
Szczecin Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Vitaliy Sachko
Szczecin Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Stefano Travaglia
Szczecin Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva
Tulln Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–55 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 62% |
| Sets won | 47% | 58% |
| Games won | 48% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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