Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Thiago MonteiroPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Thiago Monteiro have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Campinas Challenger in 2023 on clay. On clay courts they are level 2–2. Carabelli has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Monteiro leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 6 sets to Monteiro's 5. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Movistar Chile Open - Santiago (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Monteiro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Thiago Monteiro | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 13/21 | 64% | 16/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 6/22 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/43 | 40% | 19/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 40% | 12/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 46% | 13/28 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 64% | 14/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 14/16 | 80% | 20/25 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 64% | 16/25 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 1, Monteiro 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Monteiro
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 460 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Thiago Monteiro.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 27, 2025
Movistar Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 9, 2024
Santa Cruz de la Sierra Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 17, 2023
Montevideo Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 8, 2023
Campinas Challenger
C Clay · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Monteiro | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Thiago Monteiro | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 60% | 3/5 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/5 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | -20.0% |
| Units P/L | -1.58u | -1.40u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km | 562 mi · 905 km |
| Route | CAN → USA → MEX | SMR → GER |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Carabelli has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Monteiro's 40%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 26 62 36 | L 46 76 06 |
| Daniel Merida | L 64 63 26 03 | W 63 61 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 63 36 75 | L 67 46 |
| Hugo Dellien | W 64 62 | L 16 36 |
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | W 57 64 76 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 20
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Pablo Carreno Busta
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Marko Topo
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Tom Gentzsch
Hagen Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Vilius Gaubas
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Andrea Pellegrino
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
David Jorda Sanchis
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Philip Henning
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Dylan Dietrich
Gstaad
Jul 12
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Gstaad
Jul 11
Pol Martin Tiffon
Istanbul Challenger · 2nd Round
May 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–47 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 53% |
| Sets won | 47% | 53% |
| Games won | 48% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Monteiro |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 2 |
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