Roberto Carballes Baena vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Roberto Carballes Baena and Tommy Paul have met 2 times since 2021; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Baena has taken 3 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carballes Baena | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Roberto Carballes Baena | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 14/24 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 43% | 20/47 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 12/28 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 9/17 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 7/16 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 20/24 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 14/24 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 17, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 31, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Baena | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Roberto Carballes Baena | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 71% | 5/7 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.16 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -54.3% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.26u | +0.17u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 2 |
| Distance | — | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | — | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–58 matches
| Metric | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 69% |
| Sets won | 51% | 64% |
| Games won | 51% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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