Roberto Carballes Baena vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Roberto Carballes Baena and Tommy Paul have met 2 times since 2021; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Baena has taken 3 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Australian Open - Melbourne (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carballes Baena | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Roberto Carballes Baena | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 15/26 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 9/21 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 43% | 20/47 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 13/29 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 9/17 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 6/12 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 22/26 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 15/26 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jan 17, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 31, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Baena | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Roberto Carballes Baena | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 85% | 11/13 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–6 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.74 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -20.3% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | -2.84u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 5 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–51 matches
| Metric | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 69% |
| Sets won | 54% | 64% |
| Games won | 52% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Baena | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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