Hugo Gaston vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hugo Gaston and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Seville Challenger in 2023 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Gaston has taken 7 sets to Baena's 5. Their most recent meeting: Roberto Carballes Baena won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Gaston | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hugo Gaston | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 21/32 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 9/23 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/55 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 61% | 11/18 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 24/29 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Gaston 1, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Hugo Gaston and Roberto Carballes Baena are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,190 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 7, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 24, 2024
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 15, 2024
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 8, 2023
Seville Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Gaston | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hugo Gaston | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.43 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -2.1% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.30u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 103 mi · 165 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Gaston has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Baena's 50%).
| Opponent | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Colton Smith | W 16 64 62 | W 76 63 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 76 61 | L 36 26 |
| Lautaro Midon | W 46 63 64 | W 64 76 |
| Sebastian Ofner | L 46 26 | L 64 36 36 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | L 16 36 | L 64 57 36 |
| Francesco Maestrelli | W 76 61 | W 26 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Liam Draxl
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Jaime Faria
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Sho Shimabukuro
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Andre Ilagan
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Guido Ivan Justo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–60 matches
| Metric | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 51% |
| Sets won | 54% | 51% |
| Games won | 51% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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