Hugo Gaston vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hugo Gaston and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2023; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at Seville Challenger in 2023 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Gaston has taken 7 sets to Baena's 5. Their most recent meeting: Roberto Carballes Baena won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Gaston | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hugo Gaston | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 22/35 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 8/22 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 21/57 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 17/35 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 27/30 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 22/30 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Gaston 1, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Hugo Gaston and Roberto Carballes Baena are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 2,818 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 7, 2025
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 24, 2024
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 15, 2024
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 8, 2023
Seville Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Gaston | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hugo Gaston | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 46% | 6/13 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.96 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | +7.8% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.24u | -2.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | CAN | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Gaston has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Baena's 43%).
| Opponent | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper de Jong | W 76 61 | L 36 26 |
| Tiago Torres | W 63 64 | W 61 63 |
| Lautaro Midon | W 46 63 64 | W 64 76 |
| Sebastian Ofner | L 46 26 | L 64 36 36 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | L 16 36 | L 64 57 36 |
| Francesco Maestrelli | W 76 61 | W 26 63 63 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 62 64 | L 16 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Luca Van Assche
Quebec City Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 22
Jesper de Jong
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Semifinals
Jul 25
Tiago Torres
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Daniel Altmaier
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 14
Jan Choinski
Braunschweig Challenger · Final
Jul 12
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Braunschweig Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–61 matches
| Metric | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 55% |
| Sets won | 56% | 54% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Gaston | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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