Hugo Gaston vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hugo Gaston and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer have met 3 times since 2025; Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Orleans Challenger in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Kjaer leads 2–1. Across all meetings Gaston has taken 3 sets to Kjaer's 5. Their most recent meeting: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Gaston | Budkov Kjaer | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hugo Gaston | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 21/32 | 50% | 14/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 9/23 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/55 | 36% | 21/58 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 34% | 12/35 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 35% | 8/23 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 61% | 11/18 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 24/29 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 61% | 14/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Gaston 0, Budkov Kjaer 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Kjaer
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 979 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Nicolai Budkov Kjaer.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 11, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10, 2025
Roanne Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 23, 2025
Orleans Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Gaston | Kjaer | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hugo Gaston | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 5 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 39% | 5/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gaston | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.43 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | -2.1% | -25.6% |
| Units P/L | -0.30u | -4.36u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Gaston | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 103 mi · 165 km | 461 mi · 742 km |
| Route | CHN | FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Gaston has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Kjaer's 20%).
| Opponent | Gaston | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Sho Shimabukuro | W 64 64 | L 36 46 |
| Titouan Droguet | W 60 63 | L 76 26 46 |
| Moez Echargui | W 61 57 62 64 | W 67 75 61 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 26 46 | L 36 26 |
| Christopher O'Connell | L 26 36 | L 57 46 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 76 61 | L 36 16 |
| Damir Dzumhur | W | L 67 57 |
| Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | W 62 64 | L 67 36 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | L 16 36 | L 36 26 |
| Jan Choinski | L 64 06 46 | W 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Liam Draxl
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Jaime Faria
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Sho Shimabukuro
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Andre Ilagan
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Guido Ivan Justo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Felix Balshaw
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Billy Harris
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Jie Cui
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NOR-CHN 4-0 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Titouan Droguet
Cassis Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Moez Echargui
Cassis Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Cassis Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Felix Balshaw
Cassis Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–64 matches
| Metric | Gaston | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 47% |
| Sets won | 54% | 45% |
| Games won | 51% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Gaston | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Gaston | Kjaer |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
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