Pablo Carreno Busta vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2022; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo in 2022 on clay. On clay courts Busta leads 2–0. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Busta has taken 6 sets to Baez's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Valencia Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 23/40 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 27/60 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 18/38 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 31/35 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 23/35 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 1, Baez 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 195 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 14, 2026
Valencia Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 19, 2025
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 25, 2022
Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 11, 2022
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | +0.8% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.07u | +1.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 4 |
| Matches | 3 | 9 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Baez's 50%).
| Opponent | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hugo Grenier | W 46 61 64 | W 75 76 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 67 16 | L 16 26 |
| Tomas Machac | W 63 62 | L 62 46 16 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | L 36 26 | W 16 63 64 |
| Valentin Royer | L 61 57 26 | L 26 36 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 64 26 76 | W 75 63 |
| Vilius Gaubas | W 61 63 | L 57 16 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 46 63 76 | W 63 36 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 63 57 57 | W 76 62 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | W 64 76 | L 16 67 64 62 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 64–65 matches
| Metric | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 55% |
| Sets won | 60% | 53% |
| Games won | 53% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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