Pablo Carreno Busta and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2022; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–1. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Copa Faulconbridge (2026).
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Baez
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 64% vs 🧱 The Wall across 160 matches in our dataset — a stylistic lean toward Pablo Carreno Busta.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
4 career meetings, newest first
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 6/12 | 36% | 5/14 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 7% | 1/14 |
| 10 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/14 |
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.03 | 2.30 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | -30.0% |
| Units P/L | +0.83u | -4.50u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Busta's 50%).
| Opponent | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | W 63 76 63 | W 64 61 |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | W 64 63 | W 64 62 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 26 16 | W 76 61 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 63 62 | L 60 16 46 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 57 64 62 67 36 | L 36 67 |
| Ben Shelton | L 46 26 46 | W 75 63 |
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 31
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Jiri Lehecka
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Sebastian Baez
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 16
May 14
Francisco Comesana
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 32
May 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 6
Martin Damm
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · 1st Round Qualifying
May 4
Alex Molcan
Unicredit Czech Open · Final
Jun 7
Maxim Mrva
Unicredit Czech Open · Quarterfinals
Jun 5
Tristan Boyer
Unicredit Czech Open · Round of 16
Jun 3
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Unicredit Czech Open · Round of 32
Jun 2
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Alex Michelsen
Gonet Geneva Open · Round of 32
May 18
Pablo Carreno Busta
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 16
May 14
Roberto Carballes Baena
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 32
May 12
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–57 matches
| Metric | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 46% |
| Sets won | 60% | 45% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
