Pablo Carreno Busta vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2022; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo in 2022 on clay. On clay courts Busta leads 2–0. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Busta has taken 6 sets to Baez's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Valencia Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 18/34 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 8/18 | 22% | 6/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 24/52 | 23% | 14/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 14/29 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 13/22 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 10/15 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 18/27 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 1, Baez 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 210 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
May 14, 2026
Valencia Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 19, 2025
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 25, 2022
Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 11, 2022
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 65% | 13/20 |
| 3 or more | 54% | 7/13 | 30% | 6/20 |
| 5 or more | 23% | 3/13 | 15% | 3/20 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–7 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.41 | 2.40 |
| ROI % | -16.8% | -11.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.18u | -2.05u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Busta and Baez posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 46 76 64 | W 76 61 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 26 | L 46 06 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 16 67 64 26 | W 64 61 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 67 16 | L 16 26 |
| Tomas Machac | W 63 62 | L 62 46 16 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | L 36 26 | W 16 63 64 |
| Valentin Royer | L 61 57 26 | L 26 36 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 64 26 76 | W 75 63 |
| Vilius Gaubas | W 61 63 | L 57 16 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 46 63 76 | W 63 36 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–66 matches
| Metric | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 53% |
| Sets won | 58% | 52% |
| Games won | 52% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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