Marta Kostyuk vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk
#10 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
4w2 meetings · sets 1–4
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Marta Kostyuk and Naomi Osaka have met 2 times since 2020; Naomi Osaka leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2020 on hard. Osaka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Kostyuk has taken 1 sets to Osaka's 4. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kostyuk | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marta Kostyuk | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 26/36 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 4/10 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 14/46 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 20/34 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 4/10 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 30/33 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 26/33 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kostyuk 0, Osaka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kostyuk
👑 The Complete Package
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
May 9, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 4, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kostyuk | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Marta Kostyuk | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–4 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.49 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -11.8% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.41u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | UKR | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Kostyuk's 33%).
| Opponent | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 46 | L 16 46 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | W 63 62 | W 62 62 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 63 16 26 | L 26 16 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | W 64 64 | W |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 36 | W 62 76 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | L 76 67 67 | W 61 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Liudmila Samsonova
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 17
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Ekaterina Alexandrova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sloane Stephens
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Storm Hunter
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Mirra Andreeva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–46 matches
| Metric | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 78% | 75% |
| Sets won | 72% | 68% |
| Games won | 59% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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