Marta Kostyuk vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk
#11 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 1–4
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Marta Kostyuk and Naomi Osaka have met 2 times since 2020; Naomi Osaka leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2020 on hard. Osaka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Kostyuk has taken 1 sets to Osaka's 4. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kostyuk | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marta Kostyuk | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 27/38 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 45% | 5/11 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/49 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 60% | 21/35 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 10/14 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 31/34 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 27/34 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kostyuk 0, Osaka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kostyuk
👑 The Complete Package
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
May 9, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 4, 2020
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kostyuk | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Marta Kostyuk | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 60% | 9/15 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 7/15 | 81% | 13/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–4 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.55 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | +3.3% | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | +0.49u | +1.27u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Kostyuk's 30%).
| Opponent | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | L 26 26 | W 63 62 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 46 | L 64 67 46 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 63 16 26 | L 26 16 |
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | W 62 63 | W 46 64 63 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 46 | L 67 36 |
| Karolina Muchova | L 62 26 46 | L 67 46 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 36 | W 62 76 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | L 76 67 67 | W 61 75 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 64 63 | L 76 67 36 |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich | W 64 62 | L 61 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Mirra Andreeva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Sofia Kenin
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Iga Swiatek
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Madison Keys
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Katherine Sebov
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–49 matches
| Metric | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 78% | 73% |
| Sets won | 71% | 67% |
| Games won | 59% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kostyuk | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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