Marin Cilic vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal have met 5 times since 2015; Rafael Nadal leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Basel in 2015 on hard. On hard courts Nadal leads 4–1. Across all meetings Cilic has taken 5 sets to Nadal's 11. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at US Open (2019).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Cilic | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marin Cilic | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 14/19 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 25% | 5/20 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 10/39 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 65% | 11/17 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 48% | 10/21 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 42% | 8/19 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 15/18 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 14/18 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Cilic 0, Nadal 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cilic
🤖 Servebot
Nadal
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 2, 2019
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 19, 2018
Australian Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 13, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 3, 2017
Acapulco
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 30, 2015
Basel
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.30 | - |
| ROI % | -34.5% | - |
| Units P/L | -2.76u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Frances Tiafoe
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Sho Shimabukuro
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ugo Humbert
HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 16
Daniil Medvedev
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 13
Nuno Borges
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 2nd Round
Jun 12
Denis Shapovalov
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 8
Nuno Borges
Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Bastad · Round of 16
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Bastad · Round of 32
Jul 16
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 28
Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 64
May 11
Zizou Bergs
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 128
May 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–44 matches
| Metric | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | - |
| Sets won | 48% | - |
| Games won | 50% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 4 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.