Marin Cilic vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal have met 5 times since 2015; Rafael Nadal leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Basel in 2015 on hard. On hard courts Nadal leads 4–1. Across all meetings Cilic has taken 5 sets to Nadal's 11. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at US Open (2019).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Cilic | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marin Cilic | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 13/18 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 5/17 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 10/35 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 65% | 11/17 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 7/18 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 14/17 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Cilic 0, Nadal 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cilic
🤖 Servebot
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,511 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 2, 2019
US Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 19, 2018
Australian Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 13, 2017
ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 3, 2017
Acapulco
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 30, 2015
Basel
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–3 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.27 | - |
| ROI % | -56.3% | - |
| Units P/L | -2.25u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fery
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Frances Tiafoe
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Sho Shimabukuro
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ugo Humbert
HSBC Championships - London · 1st Round
Jun 16
Daniil Medvedev
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 13
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 40–40 matches
| Metric | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | - |
| Sets won | 50% | - |
| Games won | 50% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cilic | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 4 |
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