Maria Sakkari vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇬🇷Maria Sakkari
#35 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 9–6
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Maria Sakkari and Naomi Osaka have met 6 times since 2018; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Indian Wells in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Sakkari leads 3–2. Sakkari has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Sakkari has taken 9 sets to Osaka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Maria Sakkari won at United Cup - Australia (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sakkari | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Maria Sakkari | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 16/24 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 15/46 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 12/23 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 11/22 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 76% | 19/25 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 64% | 16/25 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sakkari 3, Osaka 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sakkari
🤖 Servebot
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jan 2, 2026
United Cup - Australia
H Hard · Round Robin
Mar 31, 2021
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 7, 2020
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 19, 2019
Birmingham
G Grass · Round of 32
Aug 15, 2018
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 64
Mar 8, 2018
Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sakkari | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Maria Sakkari | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 7/15 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sakkari | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–6 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.10 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -16.5% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.47u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sakkari | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (43% vs Sakkari's 0%).
| Opponent | Sakkari | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | L 63 46 16 | L 57 61 67 |
| Talia Gibson | L 16 64 26 | L 57 46 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 46 16 | L 16 46 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 64 16 16 | L 26 16 |
| Leylah Fernandez | L 67 46 | W 64 64 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | L 62 36 46 | W |
| Daria Kasatkina | L 67 46 | W 61 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elina Svitolina
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Storm Hunter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Talia Gibson
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Nao Hibino
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Linda Fruhvirtova
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 22
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Robin Montgomery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–46 matches
| Metric | Sakkari | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 75% |
| Sets won | 51% | 68% |
| Games won | 51% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sakkari | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sakkari | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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