Marcos Giron vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Marcos Giron and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2023; Sebastian Baez leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid in 2023 on clay. On hard courts Baez leads 3–0. Baez has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Giron has taken 3 sets to Baez's 8. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Giron | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marcos Giron | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 13/22 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 63% | 17/27 | 22% | 6/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 53% | 26/49 | 23% | 14/61 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 34% | 11/32 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 82% | 14/17 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 14/30 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 13/26 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Giron 0, Baez 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Giron
🎯 Baseliner
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 218 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Oct 8, 2026
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 16, 2026
ASB Classic - Auckland
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 13, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 29, 2023
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Giron | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Marcos Giron | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 65% | 13/20 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 30% | 6/20 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 4/6 | 15% | 3/20 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/20 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Giron | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.70 | 2.40 |
| ROI % | -63.9% | -11.4% |
| Units P/L | -6.39u | -2.05u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Giron | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Baez has a higher win rate against shared opponents (30% vs Giron's 20%).
| Opponent | Giron | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Jaume Munar | L 75 16 46 | W 64 64 |
| Ignacio Buse | L 63 36 36 76 16 | W 64 63 |
| Brandon Nakashima | W 76 61 | L 26 16 06 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 57 64 26 | L 64 06 36 |
| Learner Tien | L 67 64 63 67 26 | L 36 67 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 46 76 57 | L 36 16 |
| Ben Shelton | L 76 46 67 | W 75 63 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 36 62 67 | L 62 57 26 02 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 64 64 | L 57 36 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 63 46 26 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sebastian Baez
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Ignacio Buse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Dhakshineswar Suresh
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Henrique Rocha
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 12
Hubert Hurkacz
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–66 matches
| Metric | Giron | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 53% |
| Sets won | 48% | 52% |
| Games won | 50% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Giron | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Giron | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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