Madison Keys vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5w4 meetings · sets 6–3
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka have met 4 times since 2016; Madison Keys leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 2–1. Across all meetings Keys has taken 6 sets to Osaka's 3. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at US Open (2018).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 18/50 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 23/40 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 2, Osaka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Sep 1, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Semifinals
May 30, 2018
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 32
Mar 8, 2017
Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 31, 2016
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–4 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.40 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -24.8% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Keys and Osaka posted a 80% win rate.
| Opponent | Keys | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | W 64 75 | L 57 61 67 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 63 46 67 | W 76 64 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 61 63 | W 62 57 61 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | W 76 76 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 61 62 | W 63 36 64 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | W 61 75 | W |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 36 | W 62 76 |
| Katie Swan | W 61 64 | W 76 61 |
| Xi Yao Wang | W 76 61 | W 63 63 |
| Talia Gibson | W 64 64 | L 57 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–50 matches
| Metric | Keys | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 75% |
| Sets won | 65% | 68% |
| Games won | 56% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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