Head-to-Head

Madison Keys vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇺🇸Madison Keys

#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed

3–1

4 meetings · sets 6–3

🇯🇵Naomi Osaka

#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed

Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka have met 4 times since 2016; Madison Keys leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 2–1. Across all meetings Keys has taken 6 sets to Osaka's 3. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at US Open (2018).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Keys	Osaka
Indicator	Madison Keys		Naomi Osaka
Wins in straight sets	75%	24/32	69%	22/32
Wins a set when losing	53%	8/15	33%	4/12
Goes to a deciding set	34%	16/47	32%	14/44
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	59%	22/37	52%	17/33
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	38%	3/8	67%	6/9
Tiebreak sets won	45%	5/11	64%	9/14
Wins after taking set 1	83%	25/30	88%	30/34
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	80%	24/30	65%	22/34

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 2, Osaka 1).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Keys

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Osaka

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

Both Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.

Previous meetings

4 career meetings, newest first

Sep 1, 2018

US Open

H Hard · Semifinals

Osaka

May 30, 2018

Roland Garros

C Clay · Round of 32

7⁹6⁷

Keys

Mar 8, 2017

Indian Wells

H Hard · Round of 32

Keys

Aug 31, 2016

US Open

H Hard · Round of 32

7⁷6³

Keys

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Keys	Osaka
Outcome	Madison Keys		Naomi Osaka
1 or more	100%	19/19	100%	16/16
3 or more	68%	13/19	88%	14/16
5 or more	37%	7/19	81%	13/16
10 or more	16%	3/19	6%	1/16
15 or more	0%	0/19	0%	0/16
20 or more	0%	0/19	0%	0/16

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Keys	Osaka
W-L	13–6	12–4
Avg odds	1.44	1.66
ROI %	-10.3%	+7.9%
Units P/L	-1.95u	+1.27u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Keys	Osaka
Countries	2	2
Events	2	2
Matches	6	6
Distance	411 mi · 662 km	350 mi · 563 km
Route	CAN → POL	AUT → CAN

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Osaka's 60%).

Opponent	Keys	Osaka
Antonia Ruzic	W 61 62	W 63 36 64
Karolina Muchova	W 64 75	L 67 46
Linda Noskova	L 46 67	L 67 36
Aryna Sabalenka	L 36 36	W 62 76
Amanda Anisimova	W 36 62 63	L 76 67 36
Katie Swan	W 61 64	W 76 61
Xi Yao Wang	W 76 61	W 63 63
Talia Gibson	W 64 64	L 57 46
Diana Shnaider	L 36 63 06	W 61 62
Donna Vekic	W 62 63	W 76 64

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Keys

LWWWLWLL

Sara Bejlek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

6⁵7

Aug 21

Xiyu Wang

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

76³

Aug 20

Katerina Siniakova

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

Aug 18

Daria Snigur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

Aug 16

Marta Kostyuk

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 7

Antonia Ruzic

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

Aug 4

Liudmila Samsonova

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round

Jul 28

Linda Noskova

Wimbledon - London · 4th Round

6²7

Jul 6

Osaka

LWWWLWLW

Elena Rybakina

National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals

6⁵7

Aug 12

Leylah Fernandez

National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round

Aug 10

Elise Mertens

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 8

Panna Udvardy

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

Aug 6

Alexandra Eala

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals

Aug 1

Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals

Jul 31

Karolina Muchova

Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals

6⁴7

Jul 7

Aryna Sabalenka

Wimbledon - London · 4th Round

76²

Jul 5

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ KeysKeys ahead↓ Osaka

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–47 matches

Metric	Keys	Osaka
Matches won	68%	73%
Sets won	65%	67%
Games won	56%	57%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

Stage	Keys	Osaka
Grand Slam	2	1
WTA 1000	1	0

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

Surface	Keys	Osaka
Hard	2	1
Clay	1	0

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Madison Keys vs Naomi Osaka FAQ

Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 3–1 over 4 meetings.

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Style Matchup

Previous meetings

Prop Research

Player ROI

Travel

Common opponents

Recent Form

Rivalry momentum

Win rate

Record by tier

By surface

More Keys rivalries

More Osaka rivalries

Madison Keys vs Naomi Osaka FAQ

Who leads the Madison Keys vs Naomi Osaka head-to-head?

Who won the last Madison Keys vs Naomi Osaka match?

How many times have Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka played?

Who leads the Madison Keys vs Naomi Osaka head-to-head on hard courts?

When did Madison Keys and Naomi Osaka last play each other?