Luciano Darderi vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luciano Darderi and Matteo Arnaldi have met 2 times since 2022; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Zadar in 2022 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Darderi has taken 3 sets to Arnaldi's 3. Their most recent meeting: Luciano Darderi won at Turin Challenger (2024).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Erste Bank Open - Vienna
- Level
- ATP 500
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 26 · 2:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 2.05 or longer, Luciano Darderi has won 36 of 83 (43%). The price implied 39%, so Luciano Darderi has beaten it by 4 points.
At 1.75 or shorter, Matteo Arnaldi has won 69 of 113 (61%). That is level with the 61% the price implied.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Matteo Arnaldi and Luciano Darderi meet in the first round of the Erste Bank Open in Vienna on October 26, facing off on hard court. Arnaldi comes in ranked 36th, while Darderi sits at 23rd. Both men have shown inconsistency on this surface in recent play, with Arnaldi converting just 35% of his hard court matches and Darderi managing 45%.
Their head-to-head record stands at 1-1 after two meetings. Recent form has been shaky for both players: Arnaldi won just 2 of his last 5 matches and sits on a two-match losing streak, while Darderi has won only 1 of his last 5 and is down three straight. Over a longer sample, though, Darderi has steadier form at 50% across his last 10 matches compared to Arnaldi's 30%. Arnaldi has had the better recent results against common opponents, including victories over Alex de Minaur and Hubert Hurkacz where Darderi fell short.
Both players rely on heavy groundstrokes and aggressive shot-making from the baseline. Darderi's higher ranking reflects some consistency despite his current slump, but neither man has built reliable hard court results. The match will reward whoever can sustain depth and pace through longer rallies while managing unforced errors.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Darderi | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luciano Darderi | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 55% | 16/29 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 9/23 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 22/52 | 63% | 20/32 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 12/28 | 15% | 2/13 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 10/19 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 22/27 | 91% | 10/11 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 59% | 16/27 | 45% | 5/11 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Darderi 0, Arnaldi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Darderi
💥 Big Hitter
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Luciano Darderi and Matteo Arnaldi are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 3,770 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
May 18, 2024
Turin Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Mar 21, 2022
Zadar
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Darderi | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luciano Darderi | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 89% | 8/9 |
| 3 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 78% | 7/9 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 7/14 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 10 or more | 21% | 3/14 | 11% | 1/9 |
| 15 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Darderi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–7 | 3–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.36 | 3.24 |
| ROI % | -2.2% | -35.4% |
| Units P/L | -0.33u | -3.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Darderi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 4 | 4 |
| Events | 4 | 4 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 6,510 mi · 10,477 km | 7,467 mi · 12,017 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN → KAZ → AUT | JPN → CHN → FRA → AUT |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Darderi's 30%).
| Opponent | Darderi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| James Duckworth | L 57 67 | L 75 36 26 67 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | L 36 46 | W 76 57 63 62 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 36 76 46 | L 46 64 46 |
| Nuno Borges | W 46 63 75 | W 63 67 76 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 36 | L 46 26 36 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 06 36 | W 46 76 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 76 57 60 | L 16 64 36 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 67 75 16 | W 64 64 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 61 63 | W 62 63 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 62 46 16 | W 26 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
James Duckworth
Almaty Open - Almaty · 2nd Round
Oct 21
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Casper Ruud
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 8
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Harry Wendelken
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Lorenzo Musetti
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · 1st Round
Oct 19
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–63 matches
| Metric | Darderi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 51% |
| Sets won | 55% | 49% |
| Games won | 51% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Darderi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Darderi | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 1 |