Lorenzo Musetti vs Luciano DarderiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Musetti and Luciano Darderi have met 3 times since 2024; Lorenzo Musetti leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Turin Challenger in 2024 on clay. Musetti has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Musetti has taken 7 sets to Darderi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Musetti | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Musetti | Luciano Darderi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 21/29 | 60% | 21/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 4/17 | 36% | 9/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 12/46 | 38% | 23/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 20/34 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 30% | 3/10 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 7/15 | 52% | 11/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 26/29 | 84% | 27/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 66% | 21/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Musetti 2, Darderi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Darderi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,047 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 6, 2025
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 4, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
May 18, 2024
Turin Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Musetti | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Musetti | Luciano Darderi | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–3 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.62 | 1.97 |
| ROI % | -18.1% | -0.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.45u | -0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Darderi's 50%).
| Opponent | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Jaime Faria | W 75 62 | W 26 75 62 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 64 62 | W 64 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 46 36 | W 76 57 60 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 67 75 64 | L 46 36 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 67 62 64 | L 36 63 510 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 75 | W 75 63 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 60 | L 67 64 46 62 46 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 36 75 | L 06 36 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 16 | L 16 16 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 46 57 | W 16 76 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Botic van de Zandschulp
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Mattia Bellucci
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 25
Rinky Hijikata
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Brandon Nakashima
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 11
Nuno Borges
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 8
Juncheng Shang
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Alexander Blockx
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Semifinals
Jul 25
Jaime Faria
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–67 matches
| Metric | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 58% |
| Sets won | 62% | 55% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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