Lorenzo Musetti vs Luciano DarderiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lorenzo Musetti and Luciano Darderi have met 3 times since 2024; Lorenzo Musetti leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Turin Challenger in 2024 on clay. Musetti has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Musetti has taken 7 sets to Darderi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Musetti | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Musetti | Luciano Darderi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 16/22 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 25% | 4/16 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 10/38 | 42% | 22/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 15/27 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 3/9 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 5/13 | 53% | 10/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 19/22 | 81% | 22/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 16/22 | 59% | 16/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Musetti 2, Darderi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Darderi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Lorenzo Musetti and Luciano Darderi are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 6, 2025
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 4, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
May 18, 2024
Turin Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Musetti | Darderi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Musetti | Luciano Darderi | ||
| 1 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 73% | 8/11 | 79% | 15/19 |
| 5 or more | 46% | 5/11 | 47% | 9/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 11% | 2/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–5 | 12–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -28.7% | +2.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.16u | +0.55u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Musetti and Darderi posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Casper Ruud | L 36 16 | W 76 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 46 57 | L 26 26 67 |
| Dane Sweeny | L 63 16 26 26 | W 64 63 63 |
| Jaime Faria | W 75 62 | W 26 75 62 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 64 62 | W 64 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 46 36 | W 76 57 60 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 67 75 64 | L 46 36 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 67 62 64 | L 36 63 510 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 76 75 | W 75 63 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 36 75 | L 06 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Casper Ruud
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 8
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Harry Wendelken
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Botic van de Zandschulp
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–64 matches
| Metric | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 56% |
| Sets won | 59% | 54% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Musetti | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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