Leylah Fernandez vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#25 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
Title3 meetings · sets 3–5
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Leylah Fernandez and Naomi Osaka have met 3 times since 2021; Naomi Osaka leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 2–1. Osaka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Fernandez has taken 3 sets to Osaka's 5. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Fernandez | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Leylah Fernandez | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 8/26 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 18/58 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 20/40 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 10/18 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 29% | 5/17 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 27/34 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 22/34 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Fernandez 0, Osaka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fernandez
🤖 Servebot
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 10, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 7, 2025
Wuhan Open - Wuhan
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 3, 2021
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fernandez | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Leylah Fernandez | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 6/15 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.16 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | +32.2% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | +5.15u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Fernandez's 50%).
| Opponent | Fernandez | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | W 64 36 63 | W 62 62 |
| Talia Gibson | W 75 60 | L 57 46 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 76 46 67 | L 16 46 |
| Katerina Siniakova | L 75 46 67 | W 62 57 61 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 26 67 | L 46 26 |
| Xi Yao Wang | L 36 46 | W 63 63 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 64 36 64 | W 64 61 |
| Iva Jovic | W 36 63 62 | W 76 67 64 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 06 | W 61 62 |
| Eva Lys | W 64 61 | W 64 46 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Kamilla Rakhimova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Talia Gibson
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Final
Sep 27
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Semifinals
Sep 26
Mirra Andreeva
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Alycia Parks
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Kyoka Okamura
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–58 matches
| Metric | Fernandez | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 75% |
| Sets won | 54% | 68% |
| Games won | 53% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fernandez | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fernandez | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
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