Karen Khachanov vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Karen Khachanov and Rafael Nadal have met 6 times since 2017; Rafael Nadal leads 6–0. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon in 2017 on grass. On hard courts Nadal leads 4–0. Nadal has won the last 6 meetings. Across all meetings Khachanov has taken 2 sets to Nadal's 15. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Australian Open (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Khachanov | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Karen Khachanov | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 42% | 5/12 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 53% | 17/32 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 15% | 4/26 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 4/6 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 18% | 3/17 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 57% | 8/14 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 36% | 5/14 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Khachanov 0, Nadal 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Khachanov
🤖 Servebot
Nadal
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jan 12, 2022
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Mar 14, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 1, 2018
US Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Apr 12, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Round of 16
Oct 5, 2017
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 16
Jul 8, 2017
Wimbledon
G Grass · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Khachanov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | - |
| ROI % | -59.0% | - |
| Units P/L | -4.13u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Khachanov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 15
Terence Atmane
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Bernard Tomic
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Flavio Cobolli
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Yannick Hanfmann
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Billy Harris
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Ethan Quinn
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · 1st Round
Jun 16
Jesper de Jong
French Open - Paris · 3rd Round
May 29
Nuno Borges
Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Bastad · Round of 16
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Bastad · Round of 32
Jul 16
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 28
Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 64
May 11
Zizou Bergs
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 128
May 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–41 matches
| Metric | Khachanov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | - |
| Sets won | 49% | - |
| Games won | 51% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Khachanov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 3 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Khachanov | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 4 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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