Jessica Pegula vs Maria SakkariPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5w12 meetings · sets 16–11
🇬🇷Maria Sakkari
#35 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Jessica Pegula and Maria Sakkari have met 12 times since 2019; Jessica Pegula leads 7–5. Their first meeting came at Eastbourne in 2019 on grass. On hard courts Pegula leads 7–4. Pegula has won the last 4 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Pegula leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 16 sets to Sakkari's 11. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Sakkari | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Maria Sakkari | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 31/51 | 67% | 16/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 32% | 7/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 27/66 | 33% | 15/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 29/53 | 52% | 12/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 50% | 11/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 69% | 9/13 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 39/44 | 76% | 19/25 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 31/44 | 64% | 16/25 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 9 of 12 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 6, Sakkari 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Sakkari
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 54% vs 🤖 Servebot across 2,084 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jessica Pegula.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the servebot's high ace rate.
Previous meetings
12 career meetings, newest first
Jul 30, 2025
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 8, 2025
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 2, 2023
WTA Finals - Cancun
H Hard · Round Robin
Sep 30, 2023
Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 5, 2023
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 17, 2023
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · Semifinals
Oct 31, 2022
WTA Finals - Fort Worth
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 23, 2022
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara
H Hard · Final
Feb 23, 2022
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 23, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Mar 29, 2021
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Jun 26, 2019
Eastbourne
G Grass · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Sakkari | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Maria Sakkari | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 86% | 12/14 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 17/19 | 79% | 11/14 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 50% | 7/14 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–4 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | +4.8% | -19.2% |
| Units P/L | +0.86u | -2.69u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 5 |
| Distance | — | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km |
| Route | — | SGP → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Sakkari's 40%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 64 | L 46 57 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 16 64 63 | L 67 46 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 62 62 | L 61 67 26 |
| Coco Gauff | L 26 46 | L 16 46 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 75 46 64 | L 64 16 16 |
| Kamilla Rakhimova | W 64 60 | W 62 57 61 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | W 64 60 | W 63 62 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 62 63 | L 16 26 |
| Clara Tauson | W 63 26 64 | W 63 63 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | W 75 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Elina Svitolina
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Storm Hunter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Talia Gibson
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Nao Hibino
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Linda Fruhvirtova
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 22
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Robin Montgomery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–66 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 77% | 52% |
| Sets won | 69% | 51% |
| Games won | 57% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA Finals | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 3 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 7 | 4 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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