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Head-to-Head

Jessica Pegula vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Jessica Pegula

🇺🇸Jessica Pegula

#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed

5w
3–2

5 meetings · sets 7–4

Madison Keys

🇺🇸Madison Keys

#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed

5w

Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys have met 5 times since 2022; Jessica Pegula leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at San Diego Open - San Diego in 2022 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Pegula has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 7 sets to Keys's 4. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorPegulaKeys
Wins in straight sets61%74%
Wins a set when losing47%56%
Goes to a deciding set41%36%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite55%57%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog58%38%
Tiebreak sets won69%46%
Wins after taking set 189%81%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 170%78%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 3, Keys 1).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Pegula

👑 The Complete Package

Elite serve & returnHigh BP conversionAll-surface dominanceClutch performer
vs

Keys

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

5 career meetings, newest first

Jun 19, 2026

Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin

G Grass · Quarterfinals

765
768
Pegula

Jan 26, 2026

Australian Open - Melbourne

H Hard · 4th Round

63
64
Pegula

Jan 11, 2025

Adelaide International - Adelaide

H Hard · Final

36
64
16
Keys

Sep 4, 2023

U.S. Open - New York

H Hard · 4th Round

16
36
Keys

Oct 14, 2022

San Diego Open - San Diego

H Hard · Quarterfinals

64
75
Pegula

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomePegulaKeys
1 or more95%100%
3 or more90%70%
5 or more37%50%
10 or more0%20%
15 or more0%0%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricPegulaKeys
W-L14–46–4
Avg odds1.481.40
ROI %+4.8%-24.8%
Units P/L+0.86u-2.48u

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Keys's 40%).

OpponentPegulaKeys
Aryna Sabalenka
L
57
26
L
36
36
Elena Gabriela Ruse
W
63
62
W
60
63
Iga Swiatek
W
75
46
64
L
16
26
Amanda Anisimova
W
64
26
76
W
36
62
63
Katerina Siniakova
W
62
64
W
61
63
Diana Shnaider
L
36
36
L
36
63
06
Marta Kostyuk
L
16
46
L
36
16
Liudmila Samsonova
W
63
76
L
63
46
46
Linda Noskova
L
46
64
36
L
46
67
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
W
61
63
W
60
61

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Pegula
LWWWWWLW
L

Aryna Sabalenka

U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals

57
26

Sep 10

W

Emma Navarro

U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals

36
64
63

Sep 9

W

Sorana Cirstea

U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round

63
64

Sep 7

W

Leylah Fernandez

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

16
64
63

Sep 4

W

Sofia Kenin

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

63
61

Sep 2

W

Elena Gabriela Ruse

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

63
62

Aug 30

L

Coco Gauff

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final

26
46

Aug 24

W

Iga Swiatek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals

75
46
64

Aug 22

Keys
LWWLWWWL
L

Qinwen Zheng

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

61
637
57

Sep 5

W

Anna Bondar

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

57
64
765

Sep 3

W

Alina Korneeva

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

75
64

Sep 1

L

Sara Bejlek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

63
46
657

Aug 21

W

Xiyu Wang

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

763
64

Aug 20

W

Katerina Siniakova

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

61
63

Aug 18

W

Daria Snigur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

46
63
63

Aug 16

L

Marta Kostyuk

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

36
16

Aug 7

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ PegulaPegula ahead↓ Keys

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–66 matches

MetricPegulaKeys
Matches won77%68%
Sets won69%65%
Games won57%56%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StagePegulaKeys
Finals01
Grand Slam11
WTA 50021

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfacePegulaKeys
Hard22
Grass10

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Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys FAQ

Jessica Pegula leads the head-to-head 3–2 over 5 meetings.