Jessica Pegula vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 7–4
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys have met 5 times since 2022; Jessica Pegula leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at San Diego Open - San Diego in 2022 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Pegula has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 7 sets to Keys's 4. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 31/57 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 9/19 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 35/76 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 30/60 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 10/16 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 42/48 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 31/48 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 3, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Jessica Pegula and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jun 19, 2026
Berlin Tennis Open - Berlin
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Jan 26, 2026
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Jan 11, 2025
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · Final
Sep 4, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 4th Round
Oct 14, 2022
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 76% | 16/21 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 7/21 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 17–5 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.29u | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 12 | 6 |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Keys's 40%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | W 75 46 64 | L 16 26 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 64 26 76 | W 36 62 63 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 62 64 | W 61 63 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 36 | L 36 63 06 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 16 46 | L 36 16 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 63 76 | L 63 46 46 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | L 46 67 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 61 63 | W 60 61 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 60 62 | W 63 61 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 64 67 60 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–76 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 68% |
| Sets won | 66% | 65% |
| Games won | 56% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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