Jasmine Paolini vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#33 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 4–6
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko have met 4 times since 2023; Jelena Ostapenko leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Ostapenko leads 3–0. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 4 sets to Ostapenko's 6. Their most recent meeting: Jelena Ostapenko won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 10/20 | 71% | 17/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 15/39 | 40% | 17/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 10/30 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 3/9 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 14% | 1/7 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 78% | 14/18 | 69% | 18/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 10/18 | 65% | 17/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 1, Ostapenko 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,247 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 22, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 12, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Feb 12, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 28, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–2 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 1.89 |
| ROI % | -36.5% | -34.0% |
| Units P/L | -1.46u | -2.04u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 592 mi · 952 km |
| Route | ROU | POR → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paolini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Ostapenko's 40%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | L 64 67 36 | L 26 63 36 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 36 | L 16 67 |
| Tatjana Maria | L 46 36 | L 64 16 26 |
| Lucrezia Stefanini | W 64 61 | W 60 61 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 62 63 | L 16 36 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | W 64 75 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 16 | L 46 46 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 26 26 | W 63 60 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 75 63 | W 64 64 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 67 62 63 | L 64 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daria Snigur
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Lucrezia Stefanini
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Veronika Erjavec
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–42 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 57% |
| Sets won | 48% | 57% |
| Games won | 50% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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