Jasmine Paolini vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Jasmine Paolini
#20 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
8w4 meetings · sets 4–6
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#31 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Jasmine Paolini and Jelena Ostapenko have met 4 times since 2023; Jelena Ostapenko leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at U.S. Open - New York in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Ostapenko leads 3–0. Across all meetings Paolini has taken 4 sets to Ostapenko's 6. Their most recent meeting: Jelena Ostapenko won at Miami Open - Miami (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paolini | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jasmine Paolini | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 14/26 | 68% | 15/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 26% | 5/19 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 17/45 | 41% | 16/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 12/33 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 6/12 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 3/8 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 17/21 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 14/21 | 65% | 15/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Paolini 1, Ostapenko 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paolini
🏹 Frontrunner
Ostapenko
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 821 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 22, 2026
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 12, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 4th Round
Feb 12, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 28, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Paolini | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jasmine Paolini | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| 1 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–2 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.18 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | +35.3% | -7.7% |
| Units P/L | +2.12u | -0.54u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 1 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paolini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Ostapenko's 30%).
| Opponent | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Magdalena Frech | W 62 63 | L 16 36 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 46 63 | W 64 75 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 16 | L 46 46 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 26 26 | W 63 60 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 75 63 | W 64 64 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 67 62 63 | L 64 46 46 |
| Hailey Baptiste | L 57 36 | L 36 46 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 26 36 | L 64 36 26 |
| Priscilla Hon | W 60 62 | L 36 26 |
| Xi Yao Wang | W 46 76 64 | L 64 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Alexandra Eala
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Maria Sakkari
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Viktorija Golubic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Robin Montgomery
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Solana Sierra
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Dayana Yastremska
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 25
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Antonia Ruzic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Harriet Dart
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Zeynep Sonmez
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Panna Udvardy
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Francesca Jones
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Magda Linette
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–45 matches
| Metric | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 56% |
| Sets won | 53% | 56% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Paolini | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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