Frances Tiafoe vs Yoshihito NishiokaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Frances Tiafoe and Yoshihito Nishioka have met 7 times since 2016; Frances Tiafoe leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Winnetka in 2016 on hard. On hard courts they are level 3–3. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Nishioka leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 10 sets to Nishioka's 7. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tiafoe | Nishioka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Frances Tiafoe | Yoshihito Nishioka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 20/33 | 79% | 11/14 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 5/14 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 18/47 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 15/28 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 13/19 | 33% | 1/3 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 75% | 3/4 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 96% | 27/28 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 20/28 | 73% | 11/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 2, Nishioka 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Nishioka
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,249 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Aug 25, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 6, 2025
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 26, 2024
Atlanta Open - Atlanta
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 27, 2023
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 10, 2021
Rogers Cup - Toronto
H Hard · 1st Round
May 2, 2019
Estoril
C Clay · Round of 16
Jul 9, 2016
Winnetka
H Hard · Final
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–5 | 1–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.04 | 4.47 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | +4.21u | -0.31u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yannick Hanfmann
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Kei Nishikori
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Dalibor Svrcina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Aleksandr Shevchenko
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · 1st Round Qualifying
Feb 14
Coleman Wong
Delray Beach Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Feb 14
Jurij Rodionov
Davis Cup, World Group, Q, JPN-AUT 2-3 · Rubber 5
Feb 7
George Loffhagen
Australian Open - Melbourne · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 14
Nerman Fatic
Australian Open - Melbourne · 1st Round Qualifying
Jan 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 20–63 matches
| Metric | Tiafoe | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 71% | 70% |
| Sets won | 63% | 67% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tiafoe | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tiafoe | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 3 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.