Mackenzie McDonald vs Yoshihito NishiokaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald
#169 · 31 yrs · R
37 meetings · sets 6–13
🇯🇵Yoshihito Nishioka
#218 · 31 yrs · L
Mackenzie McDonald and Yoshihito Nishioka have met 7 times since 2019; Yoshihito Nishioka leads 5–2. Their first meeting came at Estoril in 2019 on clay. On hard courts Nishioka leads 3–2. On clay courts Nishioka leads 2–0. Across all meetings McDonald has taken 6 sets to Nishioka's 13. Their most recent meeting: Yoshihito Nishioka won at Atlanta Open - Atlanta (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | McDonald | Nishioka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mackenzie McDonald | Yoshihito Nishioka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 79% | 11/14 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 9/28 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 16/48 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 33% | 1/3 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 24% | 4/17 | 75% | 3/4 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 13/19 | 73% | 11/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (McDonald 1, Nishioka 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Nishioka
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 212 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Yoshihito Nishioka.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Jul 25, 2024
Atlanta Open - Atlanta
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 15, 2023
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 20, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 4, 2023
Adelaide International 1 - Adelaide
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 20, 2021
Kremlin Cup - Moscow
H Hard · 1st Round
May 28, 2019
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 128
May 1, 2019
Estoril
C Clay · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | McDonald | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 1–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 4.47 |
| ROI % | -56.3% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -5.63u | -0.31u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | McDonald | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | POR | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both McDonald and Nishioka posted a 0% win rate.
| Opponent | McDonald | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| Dalibor Svrcina | L 64 26 57 | L |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Dalibor Svrcina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Aleksandr Shevchenko
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · 1st Round Qualifying
Feb 14
Coleman Wong
Delray Beach Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Feb 14
Jurij Rodionov
Davis Cup, World Group, Q, JPN-AUT 2-3 · Rubber 5
Feb 7
George Loffhagen
Australian Open - Melbourne · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jan 14
Nerman Fatic
Australian Open - Melbourne · 1st Round Qualifying
Jan 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 20–51 matches
| Metric | McDonald | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 41% | 70% |
| Sets won | 43% | 67% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | McDonald | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | McDonald | Nishioka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
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