Head-to-Head

Elise Mertens vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇧🇪Elise Mertens

#24 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed

2–4

6 meetings · sets 5–10

🇺🇸Madison Keys

#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed

Elise Mertens and Madison Keys have met 6 times since 2017; Madison Keys leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 3–2. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 5 sets to Keys's 10. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Mertens	Keys
Indicator	Elise Mertens		Madison Keys
Wins in straight sets	72%	21/29	75%	24/32
Wins a set when losing	35%	7/20	53%	8/15
Goes to a deciding set	31%	15/49	34%	16/47
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	58%	19/33	59%	22/37
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	42%	5/12	38%	3/8
Tiebreak sets won	57%	4/7	45%	5/11
Wins after taking set 1	85%	23/27	83%	25/30
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	78%	21/27	80%	24/30

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 0, Keys 3).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Mertens

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Keys

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

Both Elise Mertens and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.

Previous meetings

6 career meetings, newest first

Mar 10, 2025

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

H Hard · 3rd Round

76⁸

Keys

Aug 30, 2024

U.S. Open - New York

H Hard · 3rd Round

6⁵7

Mertens

Aug 15, 2023

Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati

H Hard · 1st Round

Mertens

Jul 2, 2021

Wimbledon - London

G Grass · 3rd Round

Keys

Jan 16, 2019

Australian Open

H Hard · Round of 32

Keys

Aug 29, 2017

US Open

H Hard · Round of 128

6⁶7⁸

Keys

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Mertens	Keys
Outcome	Elise Mertens		Madison Keys
1 or more	100%	14/14	100%	19/19
3 or more	64%	9/14	68%	13/19
5 or more	43%	6/14	37%	7/19
10 or more	7%	1/14	16%	3/19
15 or more	0%	0/14	0%	0/19
20 or more	0%	0/14	0%	0/19

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Mertens	Keys
W-L	9–5	13–6
Avg odds	1.84	1.44
ROI %	+12.4%	-10.3%
Units P/L	+1.73u	-1.95u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Mertens	Keys
Countries	3	2
Events	3	2
Matches	7	6
Distance	1,715 mi · 2,760 km	411 mi · 662 km
Route	CAN → POL → AUT	CAN → POL

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Mertens's 50%).

Opponent	Mertens	Keys
Diane Parry	L 46 60 36	W 64 63
Nikola Bartunkova	W 16 64 62	L 36 61 46
Yuliia Starodubtseva	W 61 64	W 16 62 63
Anna Bondar	W 36 64 64	W 62 75
Liudmila Samsonova	W 16 63 60	L 63 46 46
Linda Noskova	L 36 57	L 46 67
Tatjana Maria	W 75 60	W 75 64
Mccartney Kessler	L 26 46	W 63 61
Karolina Muchova	L 61 36 06	W 64 75
Elena Gabriela Ruse	L 36 36	W 60 63

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Mertens

LWWWLLWL

Diane Parry

Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Final

Aug 30

Nikola Bartunkova

Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Semifinals

Aug 29

Yuliia Starodubtseva

Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Quarterfinals

Aug 28

Panna Udvardy

Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 2nd Round

Aug 27

Diane Parry

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

Aug 16

Naomi Osaka

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 8

Anna Bondar

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

Aug 5

Linda Noskova

Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals

Jul 8

Keys

LWWWLWLL

Sara Bejlek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

6⁵7

Aug 21

Xiyu Wang

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

76³

Aug 20

Katerina Siniakova

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

Aug 18

Daria Snigur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

Aug 16

Marta Kostyuk

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 7

Antonia Ruzic

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

Aug 4

Liudmila Samsonova

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round

Jul 28

Linda Noskova

Wimbledon - London · 4th Round

6²7

Jul 6

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ MertensKeys ahead↓ Keys

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–49 matches

Metric	Mertens	Keys
Matches won	59%	68%
Sets won	58%	65%
Games won	54%	56%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

Stage	Mertens	Keys
Grand Slam	1	3
WTA 1000	1	1

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

Surface	Mertens	Keys
Hard	2	3
Grass	0	1

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Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys FAQ

Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 4–2 over 6 meetings.

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Style Matchup

Previous meetings

Prop Research

Player ROI

Travel

Common opponents

Recent Form

Rivalry momentum

Win rate

Record by tier

By surface

More Mertens rivalries

More Keys rivalries

Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys FAQ

Who leads the Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys head-to-head?

Who won the last Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys match?

How many times have Elise Mertens and Madison Keys played?

Who leads the Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys head-to-head on hard courts?

When did Elise Mertens and Madison Keys last play each other?