Head-to-Head

Elise Mertens vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇧🇪Elise Mertens

#14 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed

2–4

6 meetings · sets 5–10

🇺🇸Madison Keys

#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed

6wBack after 6w off

Elise Mertens and Madison Keys have met 6 times since 2017; Madison Keys leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 3–2. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 5 sets to Keys's 10. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2025).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Mertens	Keys
Indicator	Elise Mertens		Madison Keys
Wins in straight sets	71%	24/34	74%	25/34
Wins a set when losing	33%	7/21	56%	9/16
Goes to a deciding set	31%	17/55	36%	18/50
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	55%	21/38	57%	23/40
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	50%	8/16	38%	3/8
Tiebreak sets won	63%	5/8	46%	6/13
Wins after taking set 1	90%	28/31	81%	26/32
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	77%	24/31	78%	25/32

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 0, Keys 3).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Mertens

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Keys

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

Both Elise Mertens and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.

Previous meetings

6 career meetings, newest first

Mar 10, 2025

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

H Hard · 3rd Round

76⁸

Keys

Aug 30, 2024

U.S. Open - New York

H Hard · 3rd Round

6⁵7

Mertens

Aug 15, 2023

Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati

H Hard · 1st Round

Mertens

Jul 2, 2021

Wimbledon - London

G Grass · 3rd Round

Keys

Jan 16, 2019

Australian Open

H Hard · Round of 32

Keys

Aug 29, 2017

US Open

H Hard · Round of 128

6⁶7⁸

Keys

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Mertens	Keys
Outcome	Elise Mertens		Madison Keys
1 or more	88%	14/16	100%	10/10
3 or more	75%	12/16	70%	7/10
5 or more	56%	9/16	50%	5/10
10 or more	0%	0/16	20%	2/10
15 or more	0%	0/16	0%	0/10
20 or more	0%	0/16	0%	0/10

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Mertens	Keys
W-L	10–6	6–4
Avg odds	2.05	1.40
ROI %	+23.4%	-24.8%
Units P/L	+3.74u	-2.48u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Mertens	Keys
Countries	2	—
Events	2	—
Matches	6	—
Distance	2,779 mi · 4,472 km	—
Route	SGP → ROU	—

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Mertens has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Keys's 40%).

Opponent	Mertens	Keys
Qinwen Zheng	L 57 26	L 61 67 57
Iga Swiatek	W 76 63	L 16 26
Anna Bondar	W 36 64 64	W 57 64 76
Diane Parry	L 46 60 36	L
Nikola Bartunkova	W 16 64 62	L 36 61 46
Yuliia Starodubtseva	W 61 64	W 16 62 63
Liudmila Samsonova	W 16 63 60	L 63 46 46
Linda Noskova	L 36 57	L 46 67
Tatjana Maria	W 75 60	W 75 64
Mccartney Kessler	W	W 63 61

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Mertens

LWWWWLLW

Qinwen Zheng

China Open - Beijing · Semifinals

Oct 10

Iga Swiatek

China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals

76⁰

Oct 9

Coco Gauff

China Open - Beijing · 4th Round

Oct 7

Jelena Ostapenko

China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round

Oct 5

Katie Volynets

China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round

Oct 3

Maja Chwalinska

Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals

Sep 25

Naomi Osaka

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

Sep 6

Maria Timofeeva

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

76⁵

Sep 3

Keys

LWWLWWWL

Qinwen Zheng

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

6³7

Sep 5

Anna Bondar

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

76⁵

Sep 3

Alina Korneeva

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

Sep 1

Sara Bejlek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

6⁵7

Aug 21

Xiyu Wang

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

76³

Aug 20

Katerina Siniakova

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

Aug 18

Daria Snigur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

Aug 16

Marta Kostyuk

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 7

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ MertensKeys ahead↓ Keys

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–55 matches

Metric	Mertens	Keys
Matches won	62%	68%
Sets won	59%	65%
Games won	54%	56%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

Stage	Mertens	Keys
Grand Slam	1	3
WTA 1000	1	1

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

Surface	Mertens	Keys
Hard	2	3
Grass	0	1

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Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys FAQ

Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 4–2 over 6 meetings.

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Style Matchup

Previous meetings

Prop Research

Player ROI

Travel

Common opponents

Recent Form

Rivalry momentum

Win rate

Record by tier

By surface

More Mertens rivalries

More Keys rivalries

Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys FAQ

Who leads the Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys head-to-head?

Who won the last Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys match?

How many times have Elise Mertens and Madison Keys played?

Who leads the Elise Mertens vs Madison Keys head-to-head on hard courts?

When did Elise Mertens and Madison Keys last play each other?