Elena Rybakina vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#1 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
8 meetings · sets 12–8
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#58 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Elena Rybakina and Paula Badosa have met 8 times since 2019; Elena Rybakina leads 5–3. Their first meeting came at Bucharest in 2019 on clay. On hard courts Rybakina leads 4–2. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Rybakina has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 12 sets to Badosa's 8. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at Brisbane International - Brisbane (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 40/60 | 74% | 20/27 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 7/12 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 27/72 | 31% | 14/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 39/64 | 51% | 19/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 6/8 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 9/16 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 47/51 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 40/51 | 83% | 20/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 3, Badosa 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Jan 8, 2026
Brisbane International - Brisbane
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 19, 2025
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 25, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 13, 2023
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Nov 9, 2022
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Apr 21, 2022
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix - Stuttgart
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 19, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 17, 2019
Bucharest
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rybakina | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elena Rybakina | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 10 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–2 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | 1.77 |
| ROI % | +28.5% | -4.9% |
| Units P/L | +4.85u | -0.64u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 10,936 mi · 17,599 km |
| Route | ROU | BRA → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (83% vs Badosa's 67%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Daria Kasatkina | W 63 57 64 | W 46 76 64 |
| Coco Gauff | W 36 64 64 | L 46 67 |
| Yulia Putintseva | W 63 63 | W 61 62 |
| Elina Svitolina | L 62 46 46 | L |
| Maria Sakkari | W 64 61 | W 63 64 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 46 63 75 | W 26 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Thea Frodin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Daria Kasatkina
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Nadia Podoroska
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Semifinals
Sep 19
Mary Stoiana
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Jazmin Ortenzi
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Justina Mikulskyte
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Sep 16
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Daria Kasatkina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–72 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 60% |
| Sets won | 74% | 59% |
| Games won | 58% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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