Elena Rybakina vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#2 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
86 meetings · sets 8–5
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#31 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko have met 6 times since 2019; Elena Rybakina leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Linz in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Rybakina leads 2–1. On clay courts Rybakina leads 2–0. Rybakina has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 8 sets to Ostapenko's 5. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 39/57 | 68% | 15/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 62% | 8/13 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 26/70 | 41% | 16/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 60% | 37/62 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 5/7 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 8/15 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 46/49 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 39/49 | 65% | 15/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 3, Ostapenko 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Ostapenko
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 54% vs 🤖 Servebot across 1,830 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jelena Ostapenko.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the servebot's high ace rate.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
May 30, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Aug 16, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 19, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · Semifinals
Jan 24, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 25, 2021
Eastbourne International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Oct 11, 2019
Linz
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rybakina | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elena Rybakina | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–3 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | +6.4% | -7.7% |
| Units P/L | +0.90u | -0.54u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 8 | 1 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Ostapenko's 40%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Magdalena Frech | W 64 76 | L 16 36 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 36 | L 46 46 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 57 46 | W 64 75 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 46 64 63 | W 46 64 64 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 46 63 75 | W 26 62 63 |
| Anastasia Potapova | L 67 46 | L 64 46 46 |
| Mirra Andreeva | W 75 61 | L 75 26 46 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 26 63 64 | L 64 36 26 |
| Hailey Baptiste | W 76 26 62 | L 36 46 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 63 62 | W 57 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Taylor Townsend
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Coco Gauff
National Bank Open - Toronto · Semifinals
Aug 13
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Liudmila Samsonova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Ann Li
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Daria Kasatkina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Antonia Ruzic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Harriet Dart
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Zeynep Sonmez
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Panna Udvardy
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Francesca Jones
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Magda Linette
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–70 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 81% | 56% |
| Sets won | 73% | 56% |
| Games won | 58% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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