Elena Rybakina vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇰🇿Elena Rybakina
#1 · 26 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 8–5
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Elena Rybakina and Jelena Ostapenko have met 6 times since 2019; Elena Rybakina leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Linz in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Rybakina leads 2–1. On clay courts Rybakina leads 2–0. Rybakina has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Rybakina has taken 8 sets to Ostapenko's 5. Their most recent meeting: Elena Rybakina won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rybakina | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elena Rybakina | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 40/60 | 71% | 17/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 7/12 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 27/72 | 40% | 17/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 39/64 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 6/8 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 9/16 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 47/51 | 69% | 18/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 40/51 | 65% | 17/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 5 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rybakina 3, Ostapenko 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rybakina
🤖 Servebot
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
May 30, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Aug 16, 2023
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 19, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · Semifinals
Jan 24, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jun 25, 2021
Eastbourne International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Oct 11, 2019
Linz
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rybakina | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elena Rybakina | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 100% | 6/6 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 83% | 5/6 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 10 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 13% | 2/16 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–2 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.47 | 1.89 |
| ROI % | +28.5% | -34.0% |
| Units P/L | +4.85u | -2.04u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 592 mi · 952 km |
| Route | ROU | POR → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Ostapenko's 50%).
| Opponent | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | L 67 16 | L 26 63 36 |
| Paula Badosa | W 63 62 | W 76 75 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | W 64 57 62 | L 46 46 |
| Qinwen Zheng | W 36 61 64 | W 46 64 64 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 67 75 60 | L 64 16 26 |
| Magdalena Frech | W 64 76 | L 16 36 |
| Shuai Zhang | W 63 75 | L |
| Antonia Ruzic | L | W 62 60 |
| Alexandra Eala | L 57 46 | W 64 75 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 46 63 75 | W 26 62 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alina Charaeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Thea Frodin
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–72 matches
| Metric | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 57% |
| Sets won | 74% | 57% |
| Games won | 58% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rybakina | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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