Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 1–8
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Naomi Osaka have met 4 times since 2018; Naomi Osaka leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Indian Wells in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 2–0. Osaka has won the last 4 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Osaka leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 1 sets to Osaka's 8. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 0, Osaka 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 7,380 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 3, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Aug 30, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 11, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Mar 11, 2018
Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 81% | 13/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | +1.27u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 6 shared opponents, both Kasatkina and Osaka posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 64 67 46 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 60 | W 61 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | W 62 76 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 63 | W 63 76 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | L 26 16 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–44 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 73% |
| Sets won | 47% | 67% |
| Games won | 49% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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