Daria Kasatkina vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#82 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 1–8
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Naomi Osaka have met 4 times since 2018; Naomi Osaka leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Indian Wells in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 2–0. Osaka has won the last 4 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Osaka leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 1 sets to Osaka's 8. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 11/21 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 21/41 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 0, Osaka 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,733 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Naomi Osaka.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 3, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Aug 30, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 11, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 3rd Round
Mar 11, 2018
Indian Wells
H Hard · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.20 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -31.7% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.49u | -1.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 7 shared opponents, both Kasatkina and Osaka posted a 57% win rate.
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 16 46 |
| Elise Mertens | W 64 60 | W 63 36 75 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 62 | W 76 76 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | W 62 76 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 63 | W 63 76 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | L 26 16 |
| Maria Sakkari | W 76 64 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Viktorija Golubic
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–44 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 75% |
| Sets won | 51% | 68% |
| Games won | 51% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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