Daria Kasatkina vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 2–7
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Jessica Pegula have met 4 times since 2021; Jessica Pegula leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2021 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts Pegula leads 2–0. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 2 sets to Pegula's 7. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 46% | 35/76 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 50% | 30/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 88% | 42/48 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 65% | 31/48 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 0, Pegula 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 7,380 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 12, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 6, 2024
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · Semifinals
Sep 29, 2023
Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 10, 2021
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 33% | 7/21 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 5% | 1/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 17–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | +2.29u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 12 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 761 mi · 1,225 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | AUT → CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Kasatkina's 10%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | W 75 46 64 |
| Simona Waltert | L 67 63 46 | W 63 62 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 62 67 36 | W 64 60 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 62 36 46 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | L 46 16 | W 63 75 |
| Sara Sorribes Tormo | W 62 60 | W 76 61 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 67 | W 60 62 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | W 64 67 60 |
| Katerina Siniakova | L 67 26 | W 62 64 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | L 67 63 26 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–76 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 75% |
| Sets won | 47% | 66% |
| Games won | 49% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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