Daria Kasatkina vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#82 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 2–7
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5wDaria Kasatkina and Jessica Pegula have met 4 times since 2021; Jessica Pegula leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2021 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. On hard courts Pegula leads 2–0. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 2 sets to Pegula's 7. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 11/21 | 61% | 31/51 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 21/41 | 41% | 27/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 55% | 29/53 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 89% | 39/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 70% | 31/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 0, Pegula 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,583 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jessica Pegula.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 12, 2025
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 3rd Round
Apr 6, 2024
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · Semifinals
Sep 29, 2023
Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 10, 2021
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 90% | 17/19 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 14–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.20 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -31.7% | +4.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.49u | +0.86u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | — |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Kasatkina's 20%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Sorribes Tormo | W 26 62 61 | W 76 61 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | L 57 26 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | W 75 46 64 |
| Simona Waltert | L 67 63 46 | W 63 62 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | L 62 67 36 | W 64 60 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | L 62 36 46 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | L 46 16 | W 63 75 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 67 | W 60 62 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | L 67 63 26 | W 64 61 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 75 63 | W 63 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Viktorija Golubic
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–66 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 77% |
| Sets won | 51% | 69% |
| Games won | 51% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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