Daria Kasatkina vs Elise MertensPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
8 meetings · sets 13–4
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#24 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Elise Mertens have met 8 times since 2017; Daria Kasatkina leads 6–2. Their first meeting came at New Haven in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Kasatkina leads 5–2. Kasatkina has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 13 sets to Mertens's 4. Their most recent meeting: Daria Kasatkina won at Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Mertens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Elise Mertens | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 35% | 7/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 31% | 15/49 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 58% | 19/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 57% | 4/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 85% | 23/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 78% | 21/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 6, Mertens 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 7,380 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Feb 10, 2026
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 8, 2023
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 1, 2023
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 23, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 12, 2022
Sydney Tennis Classic - Sydney
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 7, 2021
Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic - San Jose
H Hard · Semifinals
Apr 24, 2019
Stuttgart
C Clay · Round of 32
Aug 24, 2017
New Haven
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Mertens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Elise Mertens | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 64% | 9/14 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 43% | 6/14 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 7% | 1/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 9–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.84 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | +12.4% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | +1.73u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 7 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 1,715 mi · 2,760 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL → AUT |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mertens has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Kasatkina's 43%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 67 60 36 | W 16 64 62 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 16 36 | L 16 26 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | W 76 61 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 63 | W 62 64 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 67 | L 26 46 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 75 63 | W 16 63 60 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 46 63 60 | W 63 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Diane Parry
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Final
Aug 30
Nikola Bartunkova
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Semifinals
Aug 29
Yuliia Starodubtseva
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Panna Udvardy
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Diane Parry
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Anna Bondar
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 8
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–49 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 59% |
| Sets won | 47% | 58% |
| Games won | 49% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 4 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.