Daria Kasatkina vs Elise MertensPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#82 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
8 meetings · sets 13–4
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#14 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Elise Mertens have met 8 times since 2017; Daria Kasatkina leads 6–2. Their first meeting came at New Haven in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Kasatkina leads 5–2. Kasatkina has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 13 sets to Mertens's 4. Their most recent meeting: Daria Kasatkina won at Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Mertens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Elise Mertens | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 11/21 | 71% | 24/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 21/41 | 31% | 17/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 55% | 21/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 63% | 5/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 90% | 28/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 77% | 24/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 6, Mertens 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,733 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Elise Mertens.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Feb 10, 2026
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 8, 2023
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 1st Round
Aug 1, 2023
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 23, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 12, 2022
Sydney Tennis Classic - Sydney
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 7, 2021
Mubadala Silicon Valley Classic - San Jose
H Hard · Semifinals
Apr 24, 2019
Stuttgart
C Clay · Round of 32
Aug 24, 2017
New Haven
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Mertens | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Elise Mertens | ||
| 1 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 75% | 12/16 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 56% | 9/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.20 | 2.05 |
| ROI % | -31.7% | +23.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.49u | +3.74u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | SGP → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mertens has a higher win rate against shared opponents (88% vs Kasatkina's 38%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | W 76 63 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 16 36 | L 36 63 57 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 67 60 36 | W 16 64 62 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 36 75 46 | W 76 61 |
| Laura Siegemund | W 62 63 | W 62 64 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 67 | W |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 75 63 | W 16 63 60 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | W 46 63 60 | W 63 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Viktorija Golubic
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 10
Iga Swiatek
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Coco Gauff
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Katie Volynets
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Maria Timofeeva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–55 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 62% |
| Sets won | 51% | 59% |
| Games won | 51% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 4 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 5 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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