Daniil Medvedev vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Daniil Medvedev
#6 · 30 yrs · R
Title3 meetings · sets 7–0
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#258 · 33 yrs · R
5wDaniil Medvedev and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 3 times since 2021; Daniil Medvedev leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 3–0. Medvedev has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 7 sets to Baena's 0. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 43% | 20/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | 44% | 12/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniil Medvedev.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 9, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 25, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 11, 2021
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -15.1% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 9 | — |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Medvedev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 64 62 | L 46 36 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 75 62 76 | L 36 26 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 64 60 | L 46 26 |
| Rei Sakamoto | W 67 63 61 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 52% |
| Sets won | 66% | 52% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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