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Head-to-Head

Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Daniil Medvedev

🇷🇺Daniil Medvedev

#6 · 30 yrs · R

Title
6–3

9 meetings · sets 12–7

Pablo Carreno Busta

🇪🇸Pablo Carreno Busta

#65 · 35 yrs · R

Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 9 times since 2017; Daniil Medvedev leads 6–3. Their first meeting came at Moscow in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 5–2. Medvedev has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 12 sets to Busta's 7. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at China Open - Beijing (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorMedvedevCarreno Busta
Wins in straight sets68%53%
Wins a set when losing47%44%
Goes to a deciding set36%46%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite51%48%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog50%59%
Tiebreak sets won39%67%
Wins after taking set 194%89%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 178%67%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 8 of 9 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 5, Carreno Busta 3).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Medvedev

👑 The Complete Package

Elite serve & returnHigh BP conversionAll-surface dominanceClutch performer
vs

Busta

🏹 Frontrunner

Fast startsAggressive openersMomentum-drivenStrong holds

Matchup analysis

👑 The Complete Package vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 411 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

9 career meetings, newest first

Oct 2, 2026

China Open - Beijing

H Hard · 1st Round

64
62
Medvedev

Nov 28, 2021

Davis Cup, Finals, Group A

H Hard · Rubber 2

62
763
Medvedev

Aug 20, 2021

Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati

H Hard · Quarterfinals

61
61
Medvedev

Jul 29, 2021

Olympics - Tokyo

H Hard · Quarterfinals

26
657
Busta

Jul 26, 2021

Tokyo Olympics

C Clay · Quarterfinals

26
6577
Busta

Jun 25, 2021

Mallorca Championships - Mallorca

G Grass · Semifinals

36
63
62
Medvedev

Oct 30, 2018

ATP Masters 1000 Paris

H Hard · Round of 64

62
62
Medvedev

Mar 12, 2018

ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells

H Hard · Round of 32

16
57
Busta

Oct 12, 2017

Moscow

H Hard · Round of 16

63
63
Medvedev

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeMedvedevBusta
1 or more100%92%
3 or more100%50%
5 or more88%17%
10 or more82%0%
15 or more24%0%
20 or more12%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricMedvedevBusta
W-L11–56–6
Avg odds1.322.47
ROI %-15.1%-9.8%
Units P/L-2.42u-1.18u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricMedvedevBusta
Countries11
Events32
Matches96
Distance1,361 mi · 2,191 km663 mi · 1,067 km
RouteCHNCHN

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Medvedev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 70%).

OpponentMedvedevBusta
Felix Auger-Aliassime
W
64
62
L
36
64
16
Jan-Lennard Struff
W
46
64
63
W
64
76
Alejandro Tabilo
W
64
62
W
46
76
64
Andrey Rublev
W
75
64
L
67
16
Valentin Royer
W
76
63
L
61
57
26
Martin Damm
L
57
36
W
63
63
Botic van de Zandschulp
L
36
67
W
63
62
Thiago Agustin Tirante
W
63
62
W
76
75
36
64
Martin Landaluce
W
16
64
75
W
62
36
63
Sebastian Baez
W
64
60
W
57
75
75

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Medvedev
WLWWWWWW
W

Jan-Lennard Struff

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round

46
64
63

Oct 10

L

Novak Djokovic

China Open - Beijing · Semifinals

Oct 5

W

Francisco Cerundolo

China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals

764
63

Oct 4

W

Jan-Lennard Struff

China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round

64
63

Oct 3

W

Pablo Carreno Busta

China Open - Beijing · 1st Round

64
62

Oct 2

W

Andrey Rublev

Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final

75
64

Sep 29

W

Roman Safiullin

Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals

75
64

Sep 28

W

Chak Pong Marco Lam

Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals

63
627
63

Sep 27

Busta
LWWLWWLL
L

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round

36
64
16

Oct 12

W

Alejandro Tabilo

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round

46
762
64

Oct 10

W

Mariano Navone

Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round

46
75
63

Oct 8

L

Daniil Medvedev

China Open - Beijing · 1st Round

46
26

Oct 2

W

Adrian Mannarino

China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying

63
64

Sep 29

W

Yi Zhou

China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying

75
63

Sep 28

L

Jiri Lehecka

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

16
657
64
26

Aug 30

L

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round

Aug 24

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ MedvedevMedvedev ahead↓ Busta

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–68 matches

MetricMedvedevBusta
Matches won72%62%
Sets won66%58%
Games won56%52%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageMedvedevBusta
ATP 50010
ATP 25020
Other12
ATP Masters 100021

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceMedvedevBusta
Hard52
Clay01
Grass10

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Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno Busta FAQ

Daniil Medvedev leads the head-to-head 6–3 over 9 meetings.