Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 8 times since 2017; Daniil Medvedev leads 5–3. Their first meeting came at Moscow in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 4–2. Medvedev has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 10 sets to Busta's 7. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at Davis Cup, Finals, Group A (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 29/41 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 21/58 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 25/51 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 3/5 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 35/39 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 29/39 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 7 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 4, Carreno Busta 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 102 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniil Medvedev.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Nov 28, 2021
Davis Cup, Finals, Group A
H Hard · Rubber 2
Aug 20, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 29, 2021
Olympics - Tokyo
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 26, 2021
Tokyo Olympics
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jun 25, 2021
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca
G Grass · Semifinals
Oct 30, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Round of 64
Mar 12, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 32
Oct 12, 2017
Moscow
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 54% | 7/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.26 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -39.7% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -4.76u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Medvedev and Busta posted a 70% win rate.
| Opponent | Medvedev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Damm | L 57 36 | W 63 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 36 67 | W 63 62 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 67 67 57 | W 64 76 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 63 62 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 16 64 75 | W 62 36 63 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 64 60 | W 57 75 75 |
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | W 36 64 62 | L 46 26 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 62 | L 26 16 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 63 76 | L 36 36 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 62 63 | W 46 76 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–66 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 65% |
| Sets won | 65% | 60% |
| Games won | 55% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 4 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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