Daniil Medvedev vs Hugo GastonPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Hugo Gaston have met 2 times since 2021; Daniil Medvedev leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Medvedev leads 2–0. Medvedev has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 5 sets to Gaston's 0. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Gaston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Hugo Gaston | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | 66% | 21/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 39% | 9/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 36% | 20/55 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | 47% | 16/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 61% | 11/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 83% | 24/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 1, Gaston 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniil Medvedev.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 30, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 5, 2021
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Gaston | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Hugo Gaston | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | -15.1% | -2.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | -0.30u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 103 mi · 165 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Medvedev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Gaston's 22%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Cerundolo | W 76 63 | L 62 46 26 16 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 75 64 | L 76 67 16 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 75 62 76 | W 76 61 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | W 63 62 | L 26 63 46 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 46 76 46 | L 26 57 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | L 36 46 | L 16 46 26 |
| Terence Atmane | W 64 64 | W 64 61 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 26 75 46 | L |
| Martin Landaluce | W 16 64 75 | L 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Liam Draxl
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Jaime Faria
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Sho Shimabukuro
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Andre Ilagan
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Guido Ivan Justo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 57% |
| Sets won | 66% | 54% |
| Games won | 56% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Gaston |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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