Dane Sweeny vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- U.S. Open - New York
- Level
- Grand Slam
- Round
- 2nd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 3 · 11:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Lorenzo Musetti meets Dane Sweeny in the 2nd Round of the U.S. Open on September 3. The 14th-ranked Italian faces the unseeded American on the hard courts in New York after winning his opening match. Sweeny, ranked 123rd, advanced through his first-round test a day earlier.
The two have never faced each other. Musetti has won four of his last five matches and arrives in the tournament after three matches in two weeks. Sweeny comes in at 2-3 over his last five, with a mixed run through recent hard-court play where he holds a 6-14 record.
Musetti operates from the baseline with heavy topspin and rally patience, carrying a 13-7 hard-court record in recent matches. Sweeny plays a disruptive style built on serve placement and counter-attacking from defensive positions; his 6-14 hard-court sample reflects the difficulty he faces on faster surfaces. The match amounts to a test of whether Musetti's baseline consistency can overcome Sweeny's willingness to shorten points and take risks.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sweeny | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Dane Sweeny | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 37/55 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 52% | 13/25 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 39% | 31/80 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 31/51 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 12/18 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 20/30 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 44/53 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 37/53 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sweeny
🛡️ The Spoiler
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 59% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 109 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Musetti.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Sweeny and Musetti have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sweeny | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Dane Sweeny | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 4/10 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sweeny | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–6 | 6–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.68 | 1.59 |
| ROI % | +38.4% | -12.9% |
| Units P/L | +4.99u | -1.16u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sweeny | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 7 |
| Distance | 1,300 mi · 2,092 km | 1,279 mi · 2,059 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Sweeny's 50%).
| Opponent | Sweeny | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Corentin Moutet | W 76 64 30 | W 63 64 |
| Arthur Fery | L 46 64 16 | W 63 63 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Corentin Moutet
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Jesper de Jong
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 18
Christopher O'Connell
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Shintaro Mochizuki
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Daniel Milavsky
Vancouver Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Duncan Chan
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Andres Martin
Bloomfield Hills Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Grigor Dimitrov
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–85 matches
| Metric | Sweeny | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 66% |
| Sets won | 63% | 63% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |