Cristian Garin vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Cristian Garin and Tommy Paul have met 5 times since 2018; Cristian Garin leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Newport Beach in 2018 on hard. On clay courts Garin leads 2–1. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Garin has taken 9 sets to Paul's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Garin | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Cristian Garin | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 12/21 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 69% | 11/16 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 54% | 20/37 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 10/22 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 70% | 16/23 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 52% | 12/23 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Garin 1, Paul 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Garin
🪃 Counterpuncher
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Apr 2, 2025
US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 12, 2023
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 24, 2022
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Aug 17, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 12, 2018
Newport Beach
H Hard · Round of 32
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Garin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–1 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.70 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | +39.7% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.19u | +0.17u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Garin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 2 |
| Distance | — | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | — | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (43% vs Garin's 29%).
| Opponent | Garin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | W 26 62 63 | W 62 62 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 64 46 57 | W 46 76 64 |
| Learner Tien | L 06 62 06 26 | L 36 26 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 67 46 | W 63 76 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 67 62 62 | L 67 64 36 |
| Luciano Darderi | L 67 57 67 | L 63 36 26 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | L 57 36 | L 57 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 2
Sep 19
Toby Samuel
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Elias Ymer
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Spencer Johnson
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Learner Tien
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 26
Henri Squire
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · 1st Round Qualifying
May 16
Lautaro Midon
Oeiras 4 Challenger · 1st Round
May 12
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 2nd Round
May 9
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–58 matches
| Metric | Garin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 54% | 69% |
| Sets won | 53% | 64% |
| Games won | 52% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Garin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Garin | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 2 | 1 |
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