Cristian Garin vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Cristian Garin and Sebastian Baez have met 4 times since 2022; Sebastian Baez leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Cordoba Open - Cordoba in 2022 on clay. On clay courts Baez leads 3–0. Across all meetings Garin has taken 4 sets to Baez's 6. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Baez won at BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Garin | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Cristian Garin | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 12/21 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 69% | 11/16 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 54% | 20/37 | 23% | 14/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 10/22 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 70% | 16/23 | 83% | 29/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 52% | 12/23 | 74% | 26/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Garin 1, Baez 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Garin
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 878 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 26, 2026
BCI Seguros Chile Open - Santiago
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 25, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 2, 2023
Chile Dove Men+Care Open - Santiago
C Clay · 2nd Round
Feb 3, 2022
Cordoba Open - Cordoba
C Clay · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Garin | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–1 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.70 | 2.43 |
| ROI % | +39.7% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | +1.19u | -2.95u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Garin | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 3 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km |
| Route | — | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Garin has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Baez's 40%).
| Opponent | Garin | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 76 75 | L |
| Learner Tien | L 06 62 06 26 | L 36 67 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 75 16 61 | W 64 62 |
| Luciano Darderi | L 67 57 67 | L 46 36 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 67 62 62 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP · Rubber 2
Sep 19
Toby Samuel
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Elias Ymer
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Spencer Johnson
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Learner Tien
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 26
Henri Squire
Bitpanda Hamburg Open · 1st Round Qualifying
May 16
Lautaro Midon
Oeiras 4 Challenger · 1st Round
May 12
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 2nd Round
May 9
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Marcos Giron
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Juncheng Shang
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 23
Brandon Nakashima
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–65 matches
| Metric | Garin | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 54% | 54% |
| Sets won | 53% | 52% |
| Games won | 52% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Garin | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 3 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Garin | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 3 |
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