Corentin Moutet vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Corentin Moutet and Tommy Paul have met 2 times since 2024; Tommy Paul leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Olympics - Paris in 2024 on clay. Paul has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Moutet has taken 1 sets to Paul's 4. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach (2026).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon
- Level
- ATP 250
- Round
- Quarterfinals
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 23 · 8:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 3.74 or longer, Corentin Moutet has won 7 of 33 (21%). That is level with the 19% the price implied.
At 1.28 or shorter, Tommy Paul has won 96 of 106 (91%). The price implied 81%, so Tommy Paul has beaten it by 10 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Corentin Moutet meets Tommy Paul in the quarterfinals of the Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes in Lyon on October 23, with both players arriving on hard court after matches within the past two days. Paul, ranked 15th, holds a significant ranking gap over Moutet at 94th. The Frenchman has won two straight matches to reach this stage.
Paul leads their head-to-head series 2-0 and has won four of his last five matches overall. Moutet has won three of his last five but only three of his last ten, and has fallen to recent common opponents Davidovich Fokina, Vukic, Bublik, and Zverev that Paul defeated. Paul has also played five matches in the past fortnight compared to Moutet's two.
Moutet is a versatile all-court player who moves well and adapts his game across surfaces, though his hard court record stands at 40%. Paul is a big hitter who relies on flat striking and pace, posting a 65% win rate on hard courts. The match asks whether Moutet can neutralize Paul's power through variety and court positioning, or whether Paul's sustained aggression will carry him through a quarterfinal.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Moutet | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Corentin Moutet | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 8/12 | 58% | 19/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 11/33 | 48% | 23/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 40% | 6/15 | 40% | 17/42 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | 100% | 5/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 4/9 | 61% | 14/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 63% | 10/16 | 81% | 25/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 50% | 8/16 | 61% | 19/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Moutet 0, Paul 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Moutet
🎾 All-Court
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎾 All-Court vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 747 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Feb 17, 2026
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 31, 2024
Olympics - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Moutet | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Corentin Moutet | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 2/6 | 94% | 15/16 |
| 5 or more | 17% | 1/6 | 69% | 11/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 19% | 3/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Moutet | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–3 | 11–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.26 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | +17.8% | +3.4% |
| Units P/L | +1.07u | +0.58u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Moutet | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 6,898 mi · 11,102 km |
| Route | FRA | JPN → CHN → FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Moutet's 40%).
| Opponent | Moutet | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Ugo Humbert | W 62 67 76 | W 63 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 76 64 | L 36 61 36 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 26 46 16 | L 46 36 46 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 36 57 | W 64 36 67 61 63 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 26 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Jenson Brooksby | L 46 46 | W 46 64 76 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 64 61 | W 61 62 61 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 46 36 | W 63 76 |
| Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | W 67 64 76 | L 67 63 67 |
| Casper Ruud | L 57 36 | L 64 76 46 67 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Balshaw
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · 2nd Round
Oct 21
Ugo Humbert
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · 1st Round
Oct 20
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Marton Fucsovics
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Jenson Brooksby
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · 1st Round
Jul 29
Marcos Giron
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Abdullah Shelbayh
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · 1st Round
Jun 22
Benjamin Bonzi
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · 2nd Round
Oct 21
Daniil Medvedev
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 16
Zizou Bergs
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 14
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 38–62 matches
| Metric | Moutet | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 34% | 69% |
| Sets won | 39% | 64% |
| Games won | 48% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Moutet | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Moutet | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |