Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2025; Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome in 2025 on clay. On clay courts Carabelli leads 2–0. Carabelli has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Carabelli has taken 4 sets to Busta's 2. Their most recent meeting: Camilo Ugo Carabelli won at Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 13/21 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 6/22 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/43 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 46% | 13/28 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 14/16 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ugo Carabelli 0, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
⚙️ Grinder vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 279 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jul 15, 2026
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag
C Clay · 2nd Round
May 7, 2025
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–4 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.58u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA → MEX | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Carabelli and Busta posted a 40% win rate.
| Opponent | Carabelli | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | L 16 61 36 67 | L 67 16 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | L 36 36 | W 46 63 76 |
| Luca Van Assche | W 06 63 62 | L 36 64 26 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 36 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 76 64 | L 36 46 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 67 26 | W 57 75 75 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 76 | W 64 63 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 46 26 | L 26 16 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 63 | W 63 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 16 36 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 20
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Pablo Carreno Busta
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Marko Topo
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–65 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 65% |
| Sets won | 47% | 60% |
| Games won | 48% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Carabelli | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Carabelli | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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