Holger Rune vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Holger Rune and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 5 times since 2021; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Moselle Open - Metz in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 2–1. Rune has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rune has taken 5 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Holger Rune won at Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, ESP-DEN 3-2 (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rune | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Holger Rune | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 2/4 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 1/2 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 50% | 3/6 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 40% | 2/5 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 100% | 1/1 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 1/3 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 67% | 2/3 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 2/3 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rune 2, Carreno Busta 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rune
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 13, 2025
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, ESP-DEN 3-2
C Clay · Rubber 1
Aug 8, 2024
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 10, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 13, 2022
Noventi Open - Halle
G Grass · 1st Round
Sep 24, 2021
Moselle Open - Metz
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–2 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -17.5% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.70u | -1.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rune has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Busta's 50%).
| Opponent | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grigor Dimitrov | W 36 63 76 | L 36 26 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 64 64 | W 46 76 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daniel Altmaier
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Kyrian Jacquet
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Grigor Dimitrov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Iliyan Radulov
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, DEN-BUL 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 7
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 6–58 matches
| Metric | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 62% |
| Sets won | 60% | 58% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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