Holger Rune vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Holger Rune and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 5 times since 2021; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Moselle Open - Metz in 2021 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 2–1. Rune has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Rune has taken 5 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Holger Rune won at Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, ESP-DEN 3-2 (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rune | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Holger Rune | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 6/8 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 2/4 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 4/12 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 6/12 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 57% | 12/21 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 17% | 1/6 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 7/8 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 6/8 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Rune 2, Carreno Busta 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rune
🎯 Baseliner
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 57% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 247 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Holger Rune.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Sep 13, 2025
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, ESP-DEN 3-2
C Clay · Rubber 1
Aug 8, 2024
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 10, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 13, 2022
Noventi Open - Halle
G Grass · 1st Round
Sep 24, 2021
Moselle Open - Metz
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.29 |
| ROI % | - | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | - | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Rune's 67%).
| Opponent | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez | W 75 64 | W 57 75 75 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 64 64 | W 46 76 62 |
| Pedro Martinez | L 16 64 67 | W 64 46 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · Quarterfinals
Oct 17
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Valentin Vacherot
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 4th Round
Oct 7
Ugo Humbert
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Sebastian Baez
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Jenson Brooksby
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Sep 28
Ethan Quinn
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Sep 27
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 12–65 matches
| Metric | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 65% |
| Sets won | 64% | 60% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Rune | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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