Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan-Lennard StruffPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- U.S. Open - New York
- Level
- Grand Slam
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 1 · 12:30 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
Priced around 2.60 or longer, Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won 8 of 45 matches, 18% against a fair-price expectation of 30%.
Priced around 1.50 or shorter, Jan-Lennard Struff has won 79 of 109 matches, 72% against a fair-price expectation of 71%.
Book prices only, with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Sample sizes below ten are not shown.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jan-Lennard Struff meet next at the U.S. Open - New York on September 1 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ugo Carabelli | Struff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Jan-Lennard Struff | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 13/21 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 6/22 | 48% | 12/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 14/43 | 47% | 22/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 33% | 4/12 | 26% | 7/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 46% | 13/28 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 14/16 | 76% | 16/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 57% | 12/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carabelli
⚙️ Grinder
Struff
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,470 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jan-Lennard Struff.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Carabelli and Struff have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carabelli | Struff | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Jan-Lennard Struff | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 39% | 5/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 15% | 2/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Struff |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–4 | 7–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | 3.27 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | +31.9% |
| Units P/L | -1.58u | +4.14u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carabelli | Struff |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA → MEX | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Struff has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Carabelli's 50%).
| Opponent | Carabelli | Struff |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 46 26 | L 36 46 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 26 62 36 | W 76 26 63 |
| Mariano Navone | W 62 75 | L 06 36 |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko | L 36 64 67 | W 36 76 64 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 36 75 75 | L 46 67 |
| Brandon Nakashima | L 36 46 | W 46 76 76 67 76 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 67 26 | W 61 76 46 26 75 |
| Emilio Nava | W 76 63 63 | L 63 46 36 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 76 | W 62 64 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 63 64 | W 46 76 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nicolas Mejia
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Miomir Kecmanovic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 20
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Pablo Carreno Busta
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Marko Topo
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jun 30
Alejandro Tabilo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Alex Michelsen
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Mariano Navone
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Aleksandr Shevchenko
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 21
Jannik Sinner
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon · Round of 16
Jul 6
Daniil Medvedev
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–56 matches
| Metric | Carabelli | Struff |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 48% |
| Sets won | 47% | 48% |
| Games won | 48% | 49% |