Cameron Norrie vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Cameron Norrie and Matteo Arnaldi have met 1 time since 2023; Matteo Arnaldi leads 1–0. Across all meetings Norrie has taken 0 sets to Arnaldi's 3. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at U.S. Open - New York (2023).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- November 2 · 4:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.57 or shorter, Cameron Norrie has won 106 of 155 (68%). That is level with the 66% the price implied.
At 2.26 or longer, Matteo Arnaldi has won 23 of 56 (41%). The price implied 35%, so Matteo Arnaldi has beaten it by 6 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Matteo Arnaldi and Cameron Norrie meet in the 1st Round of the Rolex Paris Masters on November 2 on hard court. Arnaldi, ranked 36th, leads their head-to-head 1-0 from their only prior meeting. Norrie sits at 41st and arrives in Paris having played three matches in the last two weeks.
Both players have struggled on hard courts recently. Arnaldi has won 7 of 21 hard-court matches in his recent sample; Norrie stands at 10-10 on the surface. Each carries a losing streak into Paris, with Arnaldi on three straight losses and Norrie on one. They have faced overlapping opponents with mixed results: Norrie defeated James Duckworth and Mackenzie McDonald while Arnaldi lost to both.
Arnaldi attacks from the baseline with heavy hitting and looks to finish points early. Norrie operates methodically from the baseline, building rallies and using defensive steadiness to control play. Norrie's hard-court record in this sample runs five wins above breakeven, while Arnaldi's runs seven below. The match will test whether Arnaldi's aggression can dictate tempo or whether Norrie's consistency and court positioning can neutralize his power.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Norrie | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Cameron Norrie | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 13/24 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 48% | 10/21 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 47% | 21/45 | 61% | 20/33 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 11/26 | 14% | 2/14 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 11/18 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 42% | 10/24 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 18/21 | 91% | 10/11 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 62% | 13/21 | 45% | 5/11 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Norrie
🎯 Baseliner
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 1,334 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 2, 2023
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Norrie | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Cameron Norrie | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 9/11 | 80% | 8/10 |
| 5 or more | 36% | 4/11 | 60% | 6/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Norrie | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–7 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.68 | 3.09 |
| ROI % | -22.5% | -41.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.70u | -4.19u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Norrie | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 4 |
| Events | 5 | 5 |
| Matches | 5 | 5 |
| Distance | 7,680 mi · 12,360 km | 8,110 mi · 13,051 km |
| Route | CHN → FRA → AUT → FRA | JPN → CHN → FRA → AUT → FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Norrie has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Arnaldi's 43%).
| Opponent | Norrie | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Bernard Tomic | W 61 60 | W 63 61 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 36 46 | L 67 16 |
| James Duckworth | W 64 64 | L 75 36 26 67 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 57 76 61 | W 46 76 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 26 | L 16 64 36 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 63 | L 06 16 |
| Hugo Gaston | W 63 64 | W 61 57 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Daniil Medvedev
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 2nd Round
Oct 29
Francisco Cerundolo
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round
Oct 27
Benjamin Bonzi
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · 1st Round
Oct 20
Dalibor Svrcina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alexander Zverev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Luca Van Assche
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Dino Prizmic
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Luciano Darderi
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round
Oct 26
Lorenzo Musetti
Grand Prix Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes - Lyon · 1st Round
Oct 19
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 40–50 matches
| Metric | Norrie | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 50% |
| Sets won | 51% | 48% |
| Games won | 51% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Norrie | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Norrie | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |